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Overview of Global Trade Expectations for 2026

Despite the fragile state of global trade, executives from various businesses are maintaining a buoyant outlook for 2026. Recent findings from the Global Trade Observatory (GTO) conducted by DP World demonstrate that a significant 94% of surveyed executives forecast that trade growth in 2026 will either match or exceed that of 2025. This optimism persists even in the face of increasing tariffs, rising costs, and heightened political uncertainties.

Survey Insights

The GTO's annual report stems from a comprehensive survey of 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across 19 countries and eight sectors. Interestingly, the report highlights that 54% of participants expect trade growth to accelerate relative to 2025, while 40% foresee it remaining steady. Notably, 53% anticipate high to very high levels of political uncertainty, and a striking 90% predict that trade barriers will either rise or hold steady.

While macroeconomic projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest a slowdown in trade volume growth, forecasting a dip to 2.3% in 2026 from an estimated 3.6% in 2025, the sentiments from the ground tell a contrasting story. Only 25% of executives anticipate a negative impact on their operations, with 49% predicting no effect at all, and 26% identifying potential positive impacts.

Growth Potential Regions

When asked about regions with significant growth potential in 2026, executives predominantly pointed towards Europe, identified by 22% as key, followed by China at 17%, and the Asia-Pacific and North America contributing 14% and 13% respectively. Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Chairman of DP World, emphasized that as global trade becomes increasingly complex, their role is to ensure that commerce continues flowing by identifying friction points and investing in infrastructure and partnerships to aid their clients.

Strategies for Resilience

In light of the ongoing volatility, businesses are pivoting their strategies to enhance resilience within their supply chains and trade routes. Key trends emerging from the survey include:

• - Diversification of Suppliers: 51% of executives plan to diversify their supplier base, attempting to minimize reliance on single sources.
• - Inventory Increases: 44% intend to bolster their inventory levels to mitigate risks from supply chain disruptions.
• - Regional Relocation: An impressive 36% are considering relocating operations to partner countries to safeguard against potential disruptions.

Moreover, agility in routing is becoming paramount, with 26% of businesses expected to dive into new routes while 23% are assessing alternate routes. Principal motivations behind these decisions include cost savings at 38%, improved connectivity at 36%, and expedited customs procedures at 35%.

Border Friction Challenges

Despite robust optimism around trade growth, many executives identified customs clearance as one of the primary causes of delays and disruptions, underscoring the critical need for improvements in border processing. In their focus to streamline operations, 60% highlighted that customs inefficiencies can bottleneck their processes. Therefore, prioritizing investments in warehousing, logistics platforms, road networks, and customs infrastructure remains pivotal to executing seamless trade operations.

Conclusion

The Global Trade Observatory's findings underscore a striking contrast between disruptions affecting macro-level forecasts and the unwavering optimism found among business leaders. The proactive approach toward diversifying strategies and investing in infrastructure reveals a commitment amongst companies to navigate future uncertainties while fostering a resilient and agile approach to global commerce. DP World continues to facilitate this trajectory by leveraging data-driven insights and fostering collaborations that ensure trade remains efficient and effective across the globe.

For media inquiries, please contact Adal Mirza, VP of Group Communications, or Hakam Kherallah, Director of Group Communications at DP World.