New Poll Reveals Health Care Tax Credits Crucial for 2026 GOP Midterms and Trump Agenda

On November 18, 2025, Americans for a Balanced Budget published the results of a significant national survey of 800 likely voters, carried out by pollster John McLaughlin. This survey focused on 16 battleground districts where Republicans are fighting to retain their control.

Key Findings of the Survey

According to the poll, enhanced premium tax credits (EPTCs) play a crucial role in determining the outcomes of the closely contested districts in the upcoming midterm elections. The findings underscore that the GOP has an opportunity to bolster its chances in November 2026 by reversing a healthcare tax hike that is threatening to increase insurance premiums for millions of working Americans.

President Trump has emphasized the necessity of focusing on economic stability and affordability for the average American. Dee Stewart, the president of Americans for a Balanced Budget, expressed the urgency of addressing this issue, stating that failing to do so could jeopardize the Republican majorities in Congress, as well as the overall objectives of the Trump administration.

The data reveals that a staggering percentage of likely voters—91%—has acknowledged the importance of maintaining affordable healthcare to alleviate the rising cost of living. Alarmingly, 73% of voters expressed concern over potential increases in their health insurance premiums in the coming years, while 70% supported the extension of EPTCs.

Voter Sentiments and Preferences

The survey also revealed that 57% of participants are more inclined to vote for congressional candidates who advocate for preserving these tax credits. This interest is even more pronounced among Hispanic voters and independent women voters, with support ratings at 66% and 69%, respectively. In contrast, 53% reported they would be less likely to support a candidate who allowed these credits to expire, leading to higher premiums—half of whom stated they were “much” less likely to vote for such a candidate.

This polling data emphasizes the political landscape's volatility surrounding healthcare costs and their impact on electoral decisions, particularly among swing voters. McLaughlin noted that voters are increasingly evaluating candidates based on their positions on healthcare affordability, which is aligning with broader economic concerns.

Implications of Non-Extension

The implied consequences of allowing the healthcare tax credits to lapse are stark; not only could it diminish Republican representation, but it could also jeopardize the effectiveness of the Trump agenda in the aftermath of the next election. Voter commitment to candidates perceived as neglecting healthcare affordability, interpreted as detrimental to working Americans, spells significant trouble for GOP candidates in 2026.

Historical Context

The recent poll reflects a broader narrative seen in previous surveys from June and October of this year, indicating an overwhelming consensus among voters regarding the significance of EPTCs in the broader context of individual health insurance markets. Healthcare tax credits are regarded by many as essential relief for hard-working families, rather than mere government handouts.

The bipartisan support for the continuation of these tax credits presents an opportunity for GOP leaders to align more closely with their constituents' concerns, fostering a poignant dialogue about healthcare in the lead-up to the midterm elections.

In conclusion, the urgency to consider the implications of healthcare taxation resonates strongly with American families, emphasizing not only the immediate economic challenges they face but the political ramifications tied to these pivotal tax credits. Recognizing this sentiment among voters could ultimately shape the strategies of candidates as they approach the 2026 midterm elections, advocating for necessary reforms that align with public interest and economic stability.

For further details, you can access the complete memo by McLaughlin Associates which elaborates on the results and insights gained from this important survey.