Poll Shows Zohran Mamdani Leads NYC Mayoral Race with Older Voters Holding Key Deciding Power

NYC Mayoral Race Update: Dominance of Older Voters in Poll

In an exciting twist to the upcoming New York City mayoral election, a recent poll conducted by AARP New York and Gotham Polling Analytics reveals that Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani is in a strong position, commanding a notable lead among likely voters. Mamdani has garnered 43.2% support, significantly ahead of his competitors—former Governor Andrew Cuomo at 28.9% and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa at 19.4%. However, nearly 8.4% of voters remain undecided, a factor that could greatly influence the election's outcome.

The poll highlights an intriguing demographic: a staggering 78% of the undecided voters are aged 50 and older. This age group has shown a significantly higher rate of uncertainty compared to their younger counterparts, with nearly half (49%) of those aged 65 and above still undecided. Their concerns significantly revolve around the skyrocketing cost of living and health care, making them a pivotal group for any candidate aiming for victory.

Beth Finkel, the State Director of AARP New York, emphasized the vital role older voters will play in the election. Describing them as the most reliable voting bloc, she pointed out that their primary concerns include affordability, safety, and established leadership, which resonate across generations. As voter sentiment shifts, these issues take center stage, highlighting the urgency for candidates to address them.

The recent findings of the AARP/Gotham Poll reiterate trends established in the previous polls conducted in August. With voters reacting to Mayor Eric Adams's withdrawal from the race, support once held by Adams appears to have shifted predominantly towards Cuomo, with Mamdani and Sliwa also reaping benefits. In head-to-head matchups, Mamdani's lead diminishes but remains competitive, as he edges out Cuomo with a 44.6% to 40.7% margin. The undecided voters, particularly those aged 50+, have the ability to tip the scales in favor of either candidate.

Moreover, the concerns regarding cost of living remain paramount among voters of all ages, reflecting a growing sentiment that prioritizes economic stability. Almost two-thirds of survey respondents have indicated that affordability is their primary concern, with public safety and housing affordability closely trailing. Despite these concerns, there is a slight increase in optimism regarding New York City’s future, indicating a desire for change and improved leadership.

Stephen Graves, the President of Gotham Polling Analytics, noted that the most defining factor in this competitive race may well be the opinions of older voters who have not yet decided. If the competition narrows down to two frontrunners, it is likely that the reliability of the 50-plus electorate will decide the next mayor of New York City.

This comprehensive survey, undertaken on October 14-15, 2025, sampled 1,040 likely voters in the city and gives a representative view of the electorate. The results present valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of the race and outline the critical role that older voters will play in shaping the future of New York City. As the election day approaches, all eyes will be on this crucial demographic, which embodies the wider concerns of the city's electorate.