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Overview of the Automotive Transmission Market

Recent insights from Mordor Intelligence reveal a substantial upward trend in the automotive transmission market, with projections estimating a market valuation of approximately USD 209.72 billion by 2031. In 2026, the market is expected to be valued at USD 163.39 billion, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.12%. This remarkable growth is primarily driven by the global transition from traditional manual transmissions to highly sophisticated, software-driven, electrified drivetrains in vehicles due to tightening fuel economy regulations, particularly in the U.S., EU, and China.

Current Market Dynamics

The automotive landscape is witnessing a significant shift, with automatic transmissions holding a substantial share of the market. However, the advent of dual-clutch transmission systems is rapidly making its mark due to their enhanced efficiency and speed in gear shifting. Moreover, while the passenger vehicle segment remains dominant, there is a noteworthy acceleration towards electric drivetrains in light commercial vehicles, especially among e-commerce fleets that are adopting automated manual transmissions (AMTs) to mitigate driver shortages.

Regulatory Influences

Various international regulations concerning emissions and fuel efficiency are shaping the automotive transmission industry. In the United States, newer fuel economy standards are pushing manufacturers towards more efficient multi-speed automatic transmissions to optimize vehicle performance. The European Union’s stringent emission targets are indeed leading diesel vehicles towards high-speed gearboxes, whereas in China, policies promoting plug-in hybrids are compelling a swift transition to clutch-less hybrid transmissions. India’s government mandates are similarly fostering the development of advanced intelligent automated manuals to comply with expanding environmental regulations.

The Rise of AMTs in Commercial Vehicles

An increasing shortage of truck drivers in the U.S. is spurring commercial fleets to embrace automated manual transmissions. This shift not only significantly reduces the duration of training required for new drivers but also optimizes operational efficiency. Advanced technologies such as Allison’s TC10 AMT, which incorporates predictive logic, showcase notable fuel savings, while Eaton’s Endurant HD transmission displays its effectiveness in heavy-duty applications. These systems are becoming invaluable tools in efforts to enhance driver retention and safety within the trucking industry, marking them as essential to future growth in the automotive transmission market.

Regional Market Insights

The Asia-Pacific region is forecasted to dominate the market by 2025, largely due to robust sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in China, coupled with an increased preference for advanced transmission systems in Indian budget sedans. China’s recent dual-credit system advancements have fueled the adoption of specialized hybrid transmissions, with frontrunners like BYD at the forefront with their tailored hybrid powertrains.

Furthermore, South America emerges as the fastest-growing region, propelled by Brazil’s Rota 2030 initiative, which promotes the local manufacture of more efficient automatic transmissions. In Argentina, the imposition of import tariffs has successfully encouraged local assembly of dual-clutch systems, led by industry giants Volkswagen and Fiat. North America, on the other hand, has experienced a rise in 10-speed automatics featured in vehicles such as the Ford F-150 and a transition towards single-speed transmissions in electric models, typified by the Mustang Mach-E.

Industry Segmentation Overview

The automotive transmission industry can be segmented in various key areas:

• - Transmission Type: Includes Manual Transmission, Intelligent Manual Transmission (iMT), Automated Manual Transmission (AMT), Automatic Transmission (AT), Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT), and Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT).

• - Vehicle Type: Encompasses Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles, Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles, and Buses and Coaches.

• - Propulsion Technology: Covers Internal-Combustion Engine (ICE), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV/PHEV), Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV).

• - Sales Channel: Distinguishes between Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) factory-fitted systems and the aftermarket or remanufactured segment.

Conclusion

The automotive transmission market is positioned for robust growth, adapting to evolving technological advancements and shifting market demands. Industry leaders such as ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Aisin Corporation, and Eaton Corporation are keen to capitalize on these trends while navigating the complexities of regulatory environments shaping the future of transportation.

For further insights into current trends and projections in the automotive transmission sector, visit Mordor Intelligence.