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Overview of Tokyo's New Condominium Sales Prices

In 2025, the highest sales price for newly built condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards surpassed an astonishing 1.15 billion yen. This figure reflects a dramatic shift in the real estate market over the past five years, prominently characterized by extreme price fluctuations and the emergence of two distinct market segments: one driven by actual demand and the other by speculative investment.

Data and Methodology

The sales data analyzed here is derived only from actual sales prices rather than listing prices, focusing on the top three recorded sales in each year from 2021 to 2025. This approach sheds light on properties that were not only highly listed but also in high demand, providing insights into market trends.

Top Sales Prices in Recent Years

2025:
1. 11.5 billion yen (Minato Ward, 2LDK, 140.53㎡)
2. 10.4 billion yen (Shibuya Ward, 2LDK, 148.46㎡)
3. 7 billion yen (Shibuya Ward, 2LDK, 100.82㎡)

2024:
1. 4.5 billion yen (Shibuya Ward, 2LDK, 97.16㎡)
2. 3.68 billion yen (Chuo Ward, 2LDK, 105.32㎡)
3. 3.5 billion yen (Minato Ward, 1K, 44.22㎡)

2023:
1. 5.18 billion yen (Minato Ward, 3LDK, 136.93㎡)
2. 3.15 billion yen (Minato Ward, 3LDK, 90.41㎡)
3. 3 billion yen (Minato Ward, 3LDK, 85.9㎡)

2022:
1. 2.8 billion yen (Minato Ward, 3LDK, 86.37㎡)
2. 2.7 billion yen (Minato Ward, 3LDK, 112.21㎡)
3. 2.5 billion yen (Minato Ward, 2LDK, 82.02㎡)

2021:
1. 2.48 billion yen (Minato Ward, 3LDK, 121.74㎡)
2. 2.25 billion yen (Minato Ward, 3LDK, 114.93㎡)
3. 2.16 billion yen (Minato Ward, 2LDK, 94.72㎡)

Analysis of Price Trends

The highest recorded sales price for a new condominium in 2025, at 11.5 billion yen, is approximately 2.56 times the highest price recorded in 2024. This growth suggests a significant change in the dynamics of Tokyo's real estate market. The sharp increase in prices, particularly the 3.5 billion yen for a compact 1K unit, highlights the market's separation into two distinct layers: one motivated by actual living needs (for families) and another largely driven by investment interests.

Market Layering and Liquidity

From 2021 to 2025, the sales price trends indicate a divergence between average and maximum prices. The average price reflects gradual increases due to general inflation in construction costs and land prices, while maximum sales prices are experiencing significant jumps—a clear sign of a shifting market landscape.

Luxury Asset Market

• - Limited transactions (thin market)
• - Buyers are present and motivated
• - Prices driven by rarity, brand, and location
• - Sales often in niche (closed) markets rather than the general market

Practical Demand Market

• - High transaction volume (thick market)
• - Sensitive to pricing
• - Affected by interest rates, household finances, and overall economic conditions
• - Sales conducted successfully in the open market

This complete division demands a careful approach in interpreting price movements between these two markets, reinforcing that comparing luxury asset price trends to general demand properties could lead to confusion.

Conclusion

In summary, the highest recorded sales price of 11.5 billion yen marks a significant peak in Tokyo's real estate market, indicating the bifurcation of the market into investment-focused and demand-driven segments. The ability of the investment tier to absorb prices exceeding 1 billion yen signals a critical shift, suggesting that subsequent peaks in maximum sales prices most likely correlate with structural changes within the market.

For those interested in learning more about the Top 10 transactions or the dynamics of the Tokyo real estate market, refer to our comprehensive article discussing the implications of new condominium sales prices in Tokyo's 23 wards.

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Set Life Agency specializes in real estate investments in the Tokyo metropolitan area, utilizing our proprietary Real Estate Insurance Operations® scheme. We offer consulting services to help clients in asset formation and investment. For inquiries, please visit our website: Set Life Agency Contact.