#United States #Atlanta #EV market #Cox Automotive #New Vehicle Sales

Overview of November 2025 U.S. New Vehicle Sales Forecast

According to Cox Automotive, new vehicle sales in the United States are projected to decline by 8% in November 2025 compared to the previous year. This decrease stems from a combination of increased vehicle prices and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales following the expiration of federal tax credits.

Expected Sales Numbers

The forecast indicates that the sales rate for new vehicles will register around 15.7 million units, a minor increase over the 15.3 million in October but still below last year’s 16.5 million. In terms of volume, Cox Automotive estimates 1.27 million sales for November, reflecting a year-over-year drop of 7.8% and a month-over-month decline of 1%. The number of selling days in November is 25, which is two less than the previous month and one fewer than a year ago, contributing to the slowdown in sales.

Factors Behind the Decline

Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, noted that the decrease in vehicle sales was anticipated as the market faces multiple challenges. The recent history saw a surge in sales during the spring months, driven by consumers eager to purchase before further price increases due to tariff announcements. However, as new vehicle inventory is affected by such tariffs, average transaction prices have begun to climb, impacting market dynamics.

Electric Vehicle Market Conditions

The EV market has particularly felt the pinch since the government incentive expiration. In recent months, sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) had surged as consumers rushed to take advantage of tax credits implemented under the Big Beautiful Bill, but Q4 looks markedly different. The sales decline observed in October signified a turnaround for the EV segment, as demand wanes following the cessation of $7,500 tax credits.

Chesbrough explained, “Q3 was the strongest quarter ever for EVs; however, Q4 is a different story. The end of tax incentives is triggering a collapse in sales figures for electric vehicles and PHEVs.” Consequently, lower average transaction prices for new vehicles are also anticipated as sales of pricier EV models decline.

Looking Toward the Future

As the fourth quarter comes to a close, the automotive industry is bracing for a cautious 2026 outlook. The upcoming Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Forecast 2026 call is scheduled for December 17, promising insights into how the market will adapt moving forward.

About Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive stands as the leading provider of automotive services and technology globally, powered by a wealth of first-party data drawn from 2.3 billion annual online interactions. The company focuses on creating tailored solutions for car shoppers, manufacturers, and dealers. With over 29,000 employees and a range of esteemed brands such as Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, the company is well-positioned for future market shifts.

As we advance into a new year, it remains to be seen how these trends will evolve and impact consumer choices in the automotive market. It could be a transformative period as the industry grapples with pricing, market adjustments, and shifting consumer preferences.