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January 2026: New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

As we enter the new year, the automotive market is experiencing a slower sales pace, according to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive. Expected new-vehicle sales for January 2026 are projected to reach around 1.14 million units. This figure represents a year-over-year increase of 3.2%, but it reflects the impact of having one additional selling day compared to January 2025. Unfortunately, when we look at the month-over-month figures, sales are anticipated to be considerably lower, down by 23.5% from December 2025's robust sales performance of 1.49 million.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, explains that it’s common for sales to dip in January following the holiday buying season. Consumer enthusiasm naturally wanes after the festive period, and this year's particular challenges are exacerbated by severe winter weather that likely contributed to reduced shopping traffic.

The forecasted seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for January stands at approximately 15.3 million, a slight decline from last year's 15.5 million and significantly lower than December's revised figure of 16.1 million. This dip is not unexpected; the automotive market has been facing hurdles, especially in the latter part of 2025, when sales were notably sluggish following the expiration of various electric vehicle (EV) tax incentives.

Impact of Economic Factors

In addition to environmental challenges, economic factors are projected to weigh heavily on new-vehicle sales throughout 2026. Common concerns about the state of the U.S. economy—including rising inflation, persistent high vehicle prices, and cautious consumer sentiment—are contributing to a more subdued market outlook. Cox Automotive forecasts a decline in total new-vehicle sales to about 15.8 million units for the year, down from an estimated 16.3 million for 2025.

Interestingly, while tough economic conditions often deter consumer spending, there may be a glimmer of hope in the form of potential tax refunds. As tax season approaches, larger-than-average refunds could put additional disposable income back into consumers' hands. Chesbrough points out that this financial boost might encourage some buyers to overcome their hesitance and return to the market.

Segment Breakdown

When breaking down the sales forecast by vehicle segment for January, here are some insights:

• - Mid-Size Cars: Expected sales of 50,000, slightly down from last January.
• - Compact Cars: With expected sales of 85,000, this segment shows marginal growth year over year.
• - Compact SUVs/Crossovers: Anticipated sales of 210,000 reflect a significant presence in the market.
• - Full-Size Pickup Trucks: Projected sales at 165,000, highlighting the ongoing consumer preference for trucks.
• - Mid-Size SUVs/Crossovers: Expecting 170,000 which remains popular but shows a notable decrease from December.
• - Other Segments: Collectively anticipate 460,000 sales.

Looking Ahead

Overall, while January typically indicates a slowdown in the automotive market, the ongoing effects of harsh weather and economic uncertainty are altering expectations for the upcoming year. Cox Automotive is adjusting its predictions to reflect the current landscape, emphasizing a cautious approach as both consumers and dealerships alike navigate a complex environment.

Cox Automotive, with its rich array of data-driven insights, aims to continue supporting stakeholders within the automotive sector as they adapt to these evolving market conditions. As we proceed into the year, it will be essential for all involved to remain responsive to both consumer behavior and broader economic forces shaping the marketplace.

For more information on Cox Automotive and its forecasts, visit Cox Automotive.