#Japan #Fujitsu #Kawasaki #Fugaku #Yokohama National University

Major Breakthrough in Tornado Prediction

In a landmark achievement, Fujitsu Limited in collaboration with Yokohama National University has successfully developed the world's first real-time prediction system for tornadoes associated with typhoons, harnessing the power of the supercomputer Fugaku. This unprecedented advancement marks a significant leap forward in disaster preparedness and unprecedented weather prediction accuracy.

Revolutionary Technology in Action

The technology employs a highly optimized large-scale parallel processing approach, combined with an advanced weather simulation model known as the Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS). Developed by Professor Kazuhisa Tsuboki, this model allows for intricate high-resolution simulations that can encompass both large-scale typhoons and smaller-scale tornadoes efficiently. The innovative use of the Fugaku supercomputer enables accurate and timely predictions that can greatly benefit emergency response efforts and community safety, particularly in typhoon-prone regions.

Previously, the prediction process was daunting, especially during severe weather events. For example, during the tornadoes associated with Typhoon No. 10 that impacted Japan’s Kyushu region in August 2024, it took over 11 hours to generate predictions of potential tornado occurrences. This outdated method rendered warning systems ineffective, severely limiting decision-making for disaster risk management.

However, thanks to the capabilities of this new technology, the prediction time has been drastically cut down to just 80 minutes. This monumental shift allows forecasters to predict tornado occurrences up to four hours in advance. To put this in perspective, the current process consumed merely 5% of Fugaku's computational resources, suggesting that even more extensive predictions are feasible moving forward.

A Call for Collaborative Research

Fujitsu and Yokohama National University are committed to sharing this significant advancement with the research community. They plan to release the enhanced CReSS model within the fiscal year 2024. This release is expected to substantially improve the prediction of severe weather events and bolster disaster mitigation efforts. The implications of this technology extend far beyond mere predictions; they have the potential to save lives, protect properties, and enhance overall community resilience in the face of increasingly severe weather phenomena.

Context and Importance

It is noteworthy that approximately 20% of tornadoes in Japan occur during typhoons. Recognizing the increasing threats posed by severe weather events, Japan began issuing tornado warnings back in 2008. In the context of severe weather, tornadoes are particularly challenging to predict due to their short life span and small scale. The current warning systems provide alerts valid for about one hour, underlining the pressing need for longer warning periods that can provide communities ample time to prepare.

The collaboration between Fujitsu and Yokohama National University began in November 2022, a proactive response to societal challenges posed by increasingly extreme typhoon events, thought to be exacerbated by climate change. Within this framework, they have focused on critical research concerning the mechanisms that govern typhoon formation while also seeking ways to improve the speed and accuracy of typhoon-related predictions.

Conclusion

As the world confronts the ramifications of climate change, the ability to forecast extreme weather with greater accuracy becomes increasingly invaluable. Fujitsu's innovative achievements in real-time tornado prediction stand as a vital contribution to advancing societal preparedness and enhancing safety measures in the face of mother nature's unpredictability. Looking ahead, this technology holds the promise of significantly transforming how we comprehend and respond to severe weather, ensuring communities are better equipped for what lies ahead.