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Overview of Vehicle Sales in July 2025

As we approach the end of July 2025, Cox Automotive has released its forecast for new-vehicle sales, predicting a modest return to normalized sales figures. The anticipated sales pace for the month is pegged at 15.6 million units annually, which is a slight increase from June's 15.3 million but a decrease from last year's 15.8 million level. This forecast reflects a market that remains stable but with little expectation for significant growth in the months ahead.

Sales Volume Growth

In terms of sales volume, July is expected to see approximately 1.30 million vehicles sold. This marks a 1.2% year-over-year increase and a 2.5% rise compared to June's figures. However, it’s important to note that this apparent growth is partially attributed to the additional selling days in July—two more than the previous month and one more than last year—making it crucial to interpret these numbers with caution.

Current Market Challenges

Despite the positive look at the numbers, the current environment for new-vehicle sales is fraught with challenges. High vehicle prices and elevated interest rates continue to suppress sales, preventing the market from consistently breaking the 16 million sales threshold. Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, highlights that after a temporary sales spike in March and April—triggered by potential tariff threats—the market has reverted to its previous state.

Chesbrough pointed out, "High prices and high interest rates are holding the market consistently below 16 million, despite improving inventory levels. There’s no clear indication that we will see significant improvements in the coming months. The market remains stagnant due to these economic pressures."

Segment Breakdown

Cox Automotive's forecast details the expected sales performance across various vehicle segments for July:

• - Mid-Size Cars: 60,000 units sold (-7.3% YoY)
• - Compact Cars: 95,000 units sold (-4.9% YoY)
• - Compact SUVs/Crossovers: 220,000 units sold (+6.9% YoY)
• - Full-Size Pickup Trucks: 190,000 units sold (+4.6% YoY)
• - Mid-Size SUVs/Crossovers: 205,000 units sold (+4.0% YoY)
• - Other Segments: 535,000 units sold (-1.1% YoY)

Total sales volumes remain influenced by seasonal trends, and such fluctuations should be considered when evaluating the overall health of the automotive sales market.

Future Projections

Looking ahead, concerns about rising costs are prevalent. As tariffs on imported products increase and inventory costs rise, retail prices are likely to reflect these higher expenses, which could dampen sales further if economic conditions do not improve. Factors that could alter this trajectory include significant changes in consumer financing rates, improvements in production and delivery processes, or relief from tariff pressures.

In summary, while July's forecasts indicate a slight uptick in new-vehicle sales, the automotive market remains under strain. As we look forward into the latter half of 2025, businesses and consumers alike will be closely watching for signs of economic relief that could drive renewed interest in vehicle purchases. Cox Automotive continues to monitor these trends to provide ongoing insights into our evolving landscape.