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Telemetry Predicts Slower Global Auto Sales Growth

The automotive landscape is poised for dramatic changes, especially as we head towards 2035. A recent analysis by Telemetry has revealed a slowing global growth trajectory for auto sales, highlighting the complexities automakers will face in the coming decade.

Evolving Industry Dynamics

Sam Abuelsamid, an esteemed analyst and Vice President at Telemetry, asserts that significant demographic shifts, economic fluctuations, and ongoing uncertainties in trade policies are key contributors to the outlook for the auto industry. The unprecedented disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have underscored the unpredictability in the automotive supply chain, a factor that continues to perplex manufacturers and stakeholders alike.

Abuelsamid notes, "While the COVID-19 crisis was unforeseen, the factors influencing future auto sales are somewhat predictable, driven by changes in regional populations, market affordability, and advancements in vehicle electrification technologies. These trends, however, will manifest diversely across different global markets, with trade policies acting as a substantial wildcard."

Looking Ahead to 2025-2035

Telemetry's report outlines a comprehensive forecast for light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales from 2025 through 2035, categorizing projections by various powertrain configurations. This includes internal combustion engines (ICE), hybrids (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV), extended-range electric vehicles (EREV), battery-electric vehicles (BEV), and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The report segmentalizes these forecasts across eight major global regions, employing a quantitative model that accounts for historical sales data and projected environmental regulations, demographic changes, and infrastructure developments.

As this analysis progresses, it becomes evident that product planning is increasingly difficult. Automakers are tasked with adapting to governments' varying policies on electrification, with costs remaining a significant hurdle. Particularly, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) continue to command high prices, inhibiting broader adoption in some areas.

Challenges in Major Markets

A crucial element affecting future sales is the regional population dynamics. Countries like China and those in Europe are witnessing population declines, which complicates the market landscape as these regions have historically driven sales. Despite falling costs of electrified vehicle technologies, increased prices for base ICE vehicles in primary markets such as North America and Europe—due to added features like enhanced safety measures—pose additional challenges for consumers.

The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy

A particular concern highlighted in the report pertains to U.S. mercantilism and recent trade policies advocating high tariffs. Echoing the trade practices of the late 19th century, the U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on numerous imported goods, affecting trade relationships with Canada and Mexico. The anticipated rise in retail prices due to these tariffs could lead to diminished sales volumes and compel automakers to reevaluate their production strategies.

While some manufacturers may opt to relocate production to mitigate tariff impacts, the resulting logistical adjustments could incur billions in unplanned costs, further straining operational capabilities and consumer pricing structures. In the short term, these factors will likely contribute to even higher retail prices and exacerbate the already challenging environment.

Conclusion: Staying Informed

The Telemetry report serves as a critical resource for those in the automotive sector, equipping key industry players with data-driven insights essential for strategic decision-making in this unpredictable landscape. Interested parties can access the complete report and view Telemetry’s range of services via their website.

Founded in 2020, Telemetry specializes in providing strategic communications, brand publishing, and research tailored to the automotive and technology sectors, effectively bridging the gap between brands and consumers through targeted storytelling and strategic insights.

For further details about Telemetry and their offerings, visit Telemetry’s Website.