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Honeywell's Record-Breaking Business Jet Forecast

In a significant development for the business aviation sector, Honeywell International Inc. has released its 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, showcasing unprecedented demand for new business jets. The forecast predicts that 8,500 new business jets, with a combined value of $283 billion, will be delivered over the next decade, marking the highest anticipated levels in the report's extensive history. This trend is characterized by an average annual growth rate of 3%, driven by various factors, including increased interest in fractional ownership and the implementation of beneficial tax legislation.

Key Insights from the Outlook

Heath Patrick, president of Americas Aftermarket at Honeywell Aerospace Technologies, shared that despite ongoing complex macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, the demand for new jets remains strong. Operators are planning to increase their flight activity, which in turn prompts manufacturers to step up their production. The main findings from the latest outlook include:

• - New deliveries in 2026 are expected to be 5% higher than those in 2025.
• - 91% of operators surveyed plan to maintain or increase their flight volumes.
• - 20% of respondents have at least one aircraft on firm order, up from 17% the previous year.
• - The performance is deemed the most crucial factor when purchasing a new aircraft, with 89% mentioning it among their top three criteria.

Growth Influenced by Economic Policies

The surge in orders is attributed to the revival of 100% bonus depreciation, part of the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which allows businesses to claim significant deductions on business jet acquisitions. This legislative change is anticipated to drive more operators toward purchasing aircraft, particularly in the growing fractional ownership market.

Fractional ownership has significantly outpaced traditional ownership with a 65% growth in fleets since 2019, comprising primarily mid-size and super mid-size jets — making up 80% of the fractional market. Operators foresee fractional ownership as a viable way to enhance their flight capacity and optimize operations. Nearly half of those looking into fractional shares cite expansion of flying capabilities as a crucial reason.

Flight Activity Shows Promising Growth

2025 has seen an uptick in business jet flight hours, witnessing approximately 3% growth year-on-year. This rebound follows a relatively flat performance from the previous year and indicates a strong recovery in private and fractional ownership sectors, particularly in charter flight demand. Corporate flight departments, however, remain cautious, focusing on optimizing operational costs, often by mixing charter flights with their owned jets.

Regional Delivery Trends

The report also breaks down the expected deliveries by region:

• - North America: Anticipated to receive around 70% of new business jets, bolstered by positive sentiment among operators and regulatory changes favoring aircraft purchases.
• - Europe: Projected to capture 14% of new deliveries, with many operators actively placing aircraft orders.
• - Latin America: Expected to account for 7% of global deliveries, with operators showing optimism for growth.
• - Other Regions: The Asia-Pacific and Middle East & Africa regions are estimated to receive 5% and 3% of deliveries, respectively, with mixed sentiments regarding future flight activities.

Priorities in Aircraft Purchasing Decisions

When it comes to purchasing new aircraft, buyers prioritize performance, especially in terms of range and payload, with cost being a secondary consideration. Notably, buyers of new aircraft place a higher value on customer support and modern technology features compared to buyers of pre-owned jets. Significantly, advancements in fly-by-wire controls, connectivity, and safety are critical factors in purchasing decisions.

A Commitment to Sustainability

As environmental considerations gain prominence, Honeywell's report underscores how operators are striving to lower their carbon footprint. The survey reveals that 81% of operators believe developing fuel-efficient aviation technology is essential for achieving sustainability. Moreover, 61% consider sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) a meaningful step toward this goal, despite challenges regarding cost and availability. Among proactive operators, 60% are opting for more efficient aircraft, positioning them for a greener future in aviation.

Conclusion

Honeywell's comprehensive forecast not only reflects the current dynamics in the business aviation sector but also helps inform crucial business decisions, highlighting trends that may shape future aircraft development and investment opportunities. As the industry adapts to evolving market needs and sustainability requirements, the outlook remains optimistic, grounded by innovation and strategic growth in the coming decade.