#United States #Atlanta #Cox Automotive #General Motors #Toyota Motor

Automotive Sales Forecast for 2025

Cox Automotive recently released a forecast indicating that new-vehicle sales for 2025 are projected to reach approximately 16.3 million units, marking a significant increase of nearly 2% from 2024's figures. This forecast reflects the industry's anticipated best results since 2019, despite some expected challenges in the fourth quarter of 2025.

December Sales Outlook

December's sales are expected to conclude at around 1.46 million vehicles, representing a 3.5% decrease from the previous year, albeit a 12.7% increase compared to November's figures. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for December is projected to be near 15.9 million, which is a slight increase from November's levels of 15.6 million.

Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive's senior economist, noted, "Despite the challenges faced during the latter part of the year, particularly from tariffs and inflation, the demand from consumers has kept the new-vehicle market relatively healthy." The 2025 sales figures are indicative of a resilient market, reflecting a recovery in consumer confidence after previous downturns.

Automotive Market Dynamics

Throughout 2025, major automobile manufacturers like General Motors (GM) and Toyota have seen fluctuations in their market share. GM is predicted to remain the top-selling automaker in the U.S. for the fourth consecutive year, with a market share increasing to 17.3% from 16.8% in 2024. On the other hand, Toyota is also expected to enjoy growth, with an increase in market share from 14.5% to 15.5%.

The overall automotive market witnessed some volatility due to fluctuating economic conditions and shifting governmental policies. Throughout the year, a strong stock market contributed positively to vehicle demand. However, uncertainties surrounding potential price increases led many consumers to make purchase decisions sooner than originally planned.

Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are particularly noteworthy, showcasing a strong performance early in the year. The third quarter of 2025 saw record EV sales as buyers rushed to take advantage of tax credits before their expiration.

Economic Factors Influencing Sales

The full-year sales growth of 1.8% highlights the recovery from a tumultuous automotive market influenced by various economic pressures, including tariffs imposed on vehicles and related components. While the automotive sector has benefitted from a resurgence in demand, inflationary pressures and ending EV incentives have led to varied growth trajectories among manufacturers.

Looking Forward to 2026

A cautious outlook for 2026 suggests that new-vehicle sales may decline by 2.4%, with anticipated figures settling around 15.8 million units. Sustained challenges such as a slowing economy and reduced job creation dynamics are expected to impact sales in the upcoming year. Cox Automotive's forecasts not only provide insights into past performances but also set a foundational understanding of industry trends moving forward.

Conclusion

Overall, the forecasts from Cox Automotive present a nuanced view of the automotive landscape. With the industry projected to surpass prior benchmarks despite facing numerous obstacles, the future holds promise for a continued recovery in vehicle sales as economic dynamics evolve and consumer preferences shift. The predicted sales volume represents a triumph for an industry that has navigated significant challenges over the last few years.