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Analysis of the June 2025 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

In June 2025, the auto market showcased a notable increase in wholesale used-vehicle prices, revealing a potential turning point amidst the tariff-induced fluctuation that has characterized the industry. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) surged to 208.5, marking a substantial 6.3% increase year-over-year and a 1.6% rise from May. This performance is indicative of seasonal strength, despite the backdrop of volatility caused by tariff announcements.

Retail demand for used vehicles remains solid as the supply from off-lease vehicles continues to diminish, thereby supporting higher vehicle values. This upward trend suggests a sense of normalization and resilience within the used-vehicle market, especially when compared to the new vehicle segment, which has witnessed greater instability recently.

Volatility and Trends

Jeremy Robb, the Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, highlighted the volatility experienced in the wholesale appreciation trends during Q2. This fluctuation has been markedly impacted by the new sales and supply constraints stemming from tariff regulations. Despite existing volatility, the Manheim index has largely trended upward since last June, with Q2 typically witnessing the most significant changes as the spring season concludes. Moving into the latter half of 2025, Robb anticipates that the reported strength in the market may taper slightly, given the more challenging year-over-year comparisons that are expected.

Supply Chain Dynamics

Interestingly, the used-vehicle market continues to exhibit remarkable stability even as the broader automotive sector navigates supply and pricing shifts. The historical consistency of the used market has seen disruptions due to the pandemic and related economic factors, leading to an unprecedented uptick in volatility since mid-2020. Nonetheless, the steady demand coupled with a gradual return to a more typical supply environment appears to be driving a normalization of prices.

A significant aspect correlating with this stability is the increase in trade-ins stemming from a robust new-vehicle market in early Q2, which subsequently contributed to boosting used inventories. This shift signifies the return of normalcy to the used-vehicle space, indicating a more stable price trajectory anticipated in the latter part of 2025.

Weekly Trends in Values

Throughout June, weekly trends from the Manheim Market Report (MMR) revealed a decline in values, with the most considerable drop recorded in the final week of the month at 0.6%. This figure was notably higher than the average declines seen during the month. Over four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index reflected an aggregate decrease of 1.3%, contrasting sharply with the typical decrease of only 0.6% observed between 2014 and 2019. The elevated depreciation trends highlight the impact of inventory levels coupled with the unpredictability of tariff impacts observed in the previous quarter.

In June, the average daily MMR retention rate, which indicates the price differences from the current MMR, stood at an impressive 99.2%. This denotes that while market prices remained beneath MMR values during this month, there was still an overall increase from May levels. Looking at the last year, valuation models experienced a slight downshift of 0.1 percentage points in MMR retention, yet they remained above the levels recorded in June 2022 and 2023.

Segment Performance

When analyzing market segments, the luxury vehicles category led the charge with a remarkable 8.8% price increase year-over-year, maintaining its upward momentum for the fifth consecutive month. Conversely, compact cars represented the lowest performers in the segment analysis, declining by 0.1% compared to the previous year.

Additionally, electric vehicles (EVs) have also gained substantial ground, showcasing a 12.1% year-over-year price increase in June against a backdrop of diminished values noted during previous months. The increased diversity in the used EV market, which has expanded beyond models like the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3, is believed to bolster values further.

As the used EV market braces for Q3, there are expectations of heightened demand resulting from the impending expiration of tax credits for new and used vehicles, further contributing to anticipated upward price pressures as consumers seek to capitalize on existing incentives.

Retail Market Insights

Despite the positive trends in pricing, retail used-vehicle sales saw a mild decline of 1.5% from May, although there was a representative increase of 2% compared to the previous year. The average retail price for used vehicles witnessed a fractional increase of 0.3% over the last month. June's end-of-month retail assessment revealed a steady 45 days' supply aligning with figures from May but exhibiting a slight decline from June 2024.

The new vehicle landscape, on the other hand, expressed significant constraints, with sales plummeting 4.2% year-over-year and a sharp monthly decline of14.2% from May. These trends contribute to a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics that might influence used vehicles.

Future Outlook

Cox Automotive has reiterated its forecast for the used vehicle market in 2025, projecting sales to reach 20.1 million, reflecting a modest 1.2% increase compared to 2024. Anticipated constraints on retail and wholesale supply, coupled with ongoing pressures from rising new vehicle costs, will likely affect the appreciation of used-vehicle values. The revised Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is expected to increase by 1.8% year-over-year by December 2025, exhibiting a relatively stable appreciation trend against the backdrop of ongoing challenges in the industry.

In wrapping up the insights from June 2025's performance of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, it is clear that the used vehicle market continues to navigate challenges with a strong foundation, offering promising indicators for both automotive dealers and consumers alike. The potential for growth amid shifting industry dynamics points to a landscape where the used vehicle market can thrive.