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Sinopec's Groundbreaking Energy Outlook

On December 24, 2024, the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, widely known as Sinopec, announced its pioneering forecasts regarding the global and Chinese energy sectors, specifically targeting the year 2060. This marks a significant milestone as it represents the company's first comprehensive long-term outlook in this domain.

Key Insights from the Energy Forecast

Sinopec's report encapsulates a holistic view of both fossil and renewable energy trajectories over the coming decades. Here are the major points highlighted in their forecasts:

Global Primary Energy Consumption

• - Peak Predictions: The report predicts that global primary energy consumption will hit 26.71 billion tonnes of coal equivalent by 2045, with a significant shift toward renewable energy expected. By 2060, it is anticipated that renewable energy sources will contribute to 51.8% of the total energy consumption.

Slowing Energy Growth

• - Gradual Decline: A notable slowing in energy consumption growth is projected, with consumption expected to plateau at 25.25 billion tonnes by 2060. By this point, the combined share of oil and gas in total energy consumption is forecasted to fall to 35.7%.

Oil Demand Trends

• - Peak Oil Forecast: Peak demand for oil is expected around 2030, with a projected consumption of 4.66 billion tonnes. Despite changing consumption patterns, oil will continue to hold a significant role as a transportation fuel, maintaining a 40% share of total transport energy demand by 2060.

Rise of Non-Fossil Energy

• - Emergent Technologies: The projections show an impressive increase in non-fossil energy sources, particularly hydrogen and carbon capture technologies. Hydrogen consumption is projected to increase dramatically, surpassing 340 million tonnes by 2060.

China’s Energy Outlook

The forecasts extend into the Chinese energy landscape. The China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition) specifically addresses the dynamics of energy consumption within China:

Peak Energy Consumption

• - Stabilization Post-2030: Chinese primary energy consumption is expected to stabilize between 6.8 and 7.1 billion tonnes of coal equivalent after reaching its peak post-2030. Oil consumption is projected to max out before 2027 at approximately 800 million tonnes.

Transitioning Energy Sources

• - Growing Non-Fossil Energy Sector: By 2035, it is expected that non-fossil energy will overtake fossil fuels in electricity generation, achieving an impressive 8,400 TWh. Between 2026 and 2030, non-fossil sources will grow to 27% of total energy consumption in China.

Carbon Emissions Trends

• - Emission Peaks: China's carbon dioxide emissions related to energy are forecasted to increase slightly but will reach a peak range of 10.8 to 11.2 billion tonnes. This trajectory aims to align with the country’s target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030.

Insights into China’s Energy Chemical Sector

As part of their 2025 China Energy Chemical Industry Development Report, Sinopec also provided insights into the chemical sector:

Oil Refining Capacity

• - Near Peak Levels: The report indicates that the refining capacity in China is nearing its peak, stabilizing at 960–970 million tonnes per year by 2025.

Sector Challenges and Innovations

• - Addressing Challenges: The chemical industry faces challenges, including oversupply in olefin and aromatic hydrocarbon sectors. However, Sinopec emphasizes that innovation will be key to overcoming these hurdles and driving future growth towards sustainable solutions.

Conclusion

Sinopec's comprehensive energy reports serve as valuable resources for policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders in navigating future challenges and capitalizing on opportunities. The company remains committed to advancing technology and promoting sustainable practices within the energy and chemical industries as they transition to a low-carbon future.