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U.S. Auto Sales Projections for July 2025

S&P Global Mobility has released its projections for new light vehicle sales in the United States for July 2025, indicating a potential increase in sales volume to around 1.33 million units. This expected figure translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of approximately 15.9 million units, showing a modest uptick compared to the 15.5 million units recorded in the previous two months of May and June. This forecast highlights a rather cautious optimism within the automotive market.

Key Factors Influencing Sales

According to Chris Hopson, a principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility, the modest gains in auto sales can be attributed to several factors, including consumer affordability issues that continue to persist. The anticipated improvement in sales is likely to be further supported by a second wave of pull-ahead demand observed earlier this year. In particular, there is an increasing interest around Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), especially with the upcoming expiration of federal EV incentives on September 30.

The influence of these incentives is expected to motivate many price-sensitive consumers to complete their purchases before the deadline, therefore slightly boosting overall new vehicle volumes. However, this anticipated surge may not reach the same levels seen earlier in the year (specifically during March and April), raising questions about the sustainability of this growth.

July Sales Breakdown

The projection for total light vehicle sales in July 2025 breaks down as follows:

• - Total Light Vehicles (Units, NSA): 1,325,200
• - Light Truck Sales (SAAR): 13.1 million
• - Passenger Car Sales (SAAR): 2.8 million

This segment also notes that July's BEV market share is expected to exceed 9%, outperforming the year-to-date average of 7.3% through May 2025.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the optimism for July, the future of BEV sales is fraught with uncertainty, primarily due to potential long-term impacts from legislative developments, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The real consequences of this bill on BEV demand remain to be fully seen. In the short term, analysts predict further volatility within BEV sales and market share as the auto industry moves into the later months of the year.

Looking ahead, consumer tendencies may shift dramatically in line with legislative changes that could create headwinds for BEV growth. Thus, while July is shaping up to be a more fruitful month for the automotive market, challenges abound as we move into the latter half of 2025.

About S&P Global Mobility

S&P Global Mobility operates as a premier branch of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), offering significant insights rooted in comprehensive automotive data. These insights empower clients to predict market movements and make informed decisions. The organization's commitment to fostering automotive innovation proves vital in understanding the evolving purchasing patterns and emerging technologies that shape the mobility landscape. For further details regarding their insights, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.