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October New-Vehicle Sales Forecast by Cox Automotive

In a recent forecast by Cox Automotive, new-vehicle sales in the United States are expected to slow down significantly in October 2025. The forecast projects a sales pace of around 15.7 million units, down from 16.1 million in October last year and a decrease from the robust pace of 16.4 million seen in September. This expected slowdown raises concern among industry analysts, especially with the expiration of tax credits impacting electric vehicles (EVs).

According to the data provided, the total sales volume for October is anticipated to reach approximately 1.30 million units, which marks a decline of 3.1% year-over-year but represents an increase of 2.7% compared to September's sales. Despite having the same number of selling days as last year, the market conditions appear less favorable due to increasing vehicle prices and evolving customer preferences.

Impact of Electric Vehicle Sales Decline

The decrease in new-vehicle sales is partly attributed to a significant slump in EV and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales. Following the expiration of the previous tax credits for EV purchases, consumer enthusiasm for electric cars has waned, leading to fewer purchases during October. Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at Cox Automotive, mentioned that the summer's surprisingly strong sales occurred despite ongoing trade tariff uncertainties. This season, however, is predicted to bring challenges as higher prices for tariff-affected products are likely to curtail sales further.

Looking at the market segment breakdown, the forecast indicates drastic year-on-year changes across various vehicle categories. For instance:

• - Mid-Size Cars are expected to sell 60,000 units, down by 22.6% from last October.
• - Compact Cars are projected to total around 85,000, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year decline.
• - However, Mid-Size SUVs/Crossovers are expected to show a slight increase, with sales estimated at 210,000 units, representing a 5.4% growth from the previous year.

These statistics indicate that while some segments like SUVs are remaining resilient, traditional car segments are facing significant declines.

Shifts in Consumer Preferences

The automotive market has shifted remarkably over the past few months, with the earlier spike in EV sales primarily attributed to consumers rushing to make purchases before the tax credits expired at the end of September. The third quarter witnessed electric vehicle sales reaching an all-time high of 438,487 units, a striking growth of 40.7% from the preceding quarter. However, this momentum is now anticipated to reverse in light of the current tax environment.

Chesbrough emphasized the changing landscape for EV sales, highlighting that they are expected to fall sharply moving forward, as demand collapses without government incentives. Consequently, market challenges for traditional vehicles are also projected to increase as vehicle prices continue to rise.

Full-Year Sales Projections and Industry Outlook

Despite the anticipated slowdown, the overall full-year sales forecast by Cox Automotive remains optimistic, predicting a range between 15.8 million and 16.4 million vehicle sales for 2025, with a baseline expectation of around 16.1 million. The robust sales in the third quarter have led to upward adjustments in forecasts for both fleet and retail sales, emphasizing the importance of adapting strategies to meet evolving consumer demands in this new automotive era.

Cox Automotive, a leading provider of automotive services and technology, emphasizes the need for industry adaptation in light of changing sales landscapes. With over 29,000 employees globally, they offer comprehensive solutions tailored for various players within the automotive ecosystem. As it stands, stakeholders must cautiously navigate these uncertain sales trajectories influenced by economic factors and consumer sentiment.

To find more insights and forecasts, visit Cox Automotive's official website.