#Barcelona #Global #Rockefeller Foundation #The Lancet #ISGlobal

Introduction

A recent study published in The Lancet Global Health by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), backed by the Rockefeller Foundation, reveals that drastic reductions in global aid could lead to approximately 22.6 million preventable deaths by the year 2030. This includes alarming figures such as 5.4 million deaths among children under the age of five, affecting 93 countries, predominantly in low- and middle-income regions.

Key Findings

The study indicates that Sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly affected, accounting for 38 out of the 93 countries analyzed. Other regions warned about include the Middle East and North Africa (12 countries), Europe (10 countries, including Ukraine), and Asia (21 countries). This alarming snapshot of health risks prompts a critical inquiry into the implications of diminishing aid levels, particularly from influential donors like the United States and European nations.

According to Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of the Rockefeller Foundation, the implications of these reductions are enormous. He highlights that the moral cost of such a zero-sum approach in political decision-making about aid is profoundly concerning. The message emphasizes that we must strive not only to reverse aid cuts but also to innovate new models of cooperation to support vulnerable populations.

Historical Context

Since 2002, international development assistance (ODA) has been linked to remarkable health outcomes, such as a 39% reduction in infant mortality, a 70% drop in deaths from HIV/AIDS, and significant declines in mortality from malaria and malnutrition-related diseases. ODA has proven to be one of the most potent tools in promoting global health, reinforcing health systems, and mitigating the impact of illness in resource-limited settings.

The Current Downturn

In 2024, international aid saw its first decline in six years, with major contributors like the USA, UK, France, and Germany announcing significant cuts. These declines raise critical questions about the future of health in these countries, where millions depend on international support for their survival. The OECD estimates that ODA could fall by 10-18% from 2024 to 2025, urging an urgent evaluation of the potential human impacts.

The repercussions of these financial decisions are immediate and dire. As ISGlobal researcher Davide Rasella warns, the lack of development support would not only reverse years of progress but may directly lead to avoidable deaths among both adults and children in the coming decade.

Scenarios Projected

The study outlines two scenarios regarding ODA cuts:
1. Mild Expenditure Reduction: If the annual reduction averages 10.6%, approximately 9.4 million deaths could be avoided, including 2.5 million young children.
2. Severe Downscaling: A steep cut of 15.1% could lead to 22.6 million additional deaths, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations, with children under five suffering the most.

Such projections highlight the catastrophic potential of abandoning global solidarity and support for health systems, particularly in impoverished regions.

A Call for Action

This study underscores the urgent need for innovative strategies in global aid that align with the realities of reduced budgets. As highlighted by Rockefeller Foundation officials, sustaining and reallocating development aid requires collaboration with various stakeholders, including philanthropy, civil society, and local governments, to create sustainable health and development solutions.

World leaders are urged to reconsider their positions on international aid and recognize the shared future we are building together. The stakes are higher than ever, and the time to act is now. The world must unite to ensure that past health gains are not squandered and that we do not witness unnecessary suffering due to lack of funding.

Conclusion

As we look towards 2030, the health and future of millions hang in the balance. The findings from ISGlobal's research should serve as a rallying cry for global cooperation, collective responsibility, and a recommitment to development assistance as a lifeline for millions who cannot afford to lose any more support.