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Increase in CEO Confidence for Q4 2025: A New Economic Outlook

The latest findings from the Vistage CEO Confidence Index reveal a notable rise in confidence among small and midsize business (SMB) leaders during the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting their growing comfort with navigating the current economic landscape. The Index improved by seven points, reaching 88.9, signifying the strongest reading for the year. This surge is fueled by a more realistic outlook as CEOs recalibrate their expectations for the coming year, transitioning from uncertainty toward actionable plans.

According to Joe Galvin, chief research officer at Vistage, this increase in confidence indicates a shift from a general sense of optimism following the 2024 election to a more grounded understanding of market realities. Leaders are now prioritizing what they can control, pivoting their strategies away from waiting for policy clarity toward recognizing and pursuing potential opportunities.

Despite the optimism not returning to the peak levels observed last year, the latest survey demonstrated that nearly 70% of SMB CEOs are anticipating an increase in sales revenues for the upcoming year—a significant jump from the previous quarter. Moreover, over half of the respondents project enhanced profitability, although this expectation is tempered by sustained pressures on labor, insurance, and supplier costs.

Automated Responses to Economic Pressures

As businesses respond to these pressures, a considerable number of CEOs are planning to raise prices in the near future. Specifically, 57% of them anticipate increasing their prices within three months, with a range of expected hikes between 1% to over 10%. This ongoing price adjustment is indicative of the efforts to counterbalance the rising costs affecting various sectors.

Labor market dynamics also play a pivotal role in shaping business strategies. In a notable trend, 57% of SMB CEOs aim to expand their workforce in the next year, up sharply from 48% in the previous quarter. This hiring intent arises from the challenges associated with skilled labor shortages and rising wages, leading some businesses to seek talent from outside the United States. Currently, 38% of CEOs are employing overseas workers, reflecting the evolving talent acquisition landscape.

AI adoption among SMBs is also on the rise. Approximately 76% of CEOs have incorporated generative AI into their operations, enjoying benefits such as enhanced strategic thinking and improved efficiency in communication and task management.

Cybersecurity Concerns

However, amidst these positive shifts, concerns about cybersecurity are escalating. Nearly one-quarter of SMB leaders reported experiencing a cyberattack over the past year, highlighting the urgent need for robust cyber risk strategies. While a majority have some form of strategy in place, a notable percentage—16%—lack a defined plan altogether, indicating a vulnerability that could impact their operations.

The findings from the Q4 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index not only illustrate a stabilization in sentiment after a tumultuous period but also set the stage for potential growth in 2026. Economists, such as Lauren Saidel-Baker from ITR Economics, foresee an upward trajectory as uncertainties diminish, paving the way for a gradual build-up of momentum in various sectors.

In conclusion, the rebound in CEO confidence underscores resilience in the face of uncertainty. As leaders harness their insights and strategize for the year ahead, they stand poised to embrace growth opportunities while navigating the landscape of ongoing challenges. With the Vistage CEO Confidence Index acting as a leading indicator for the U.S. Industrial Production Index, the future outlook remains hopeful for SMBs across the country.