#South Korea #Jeonbuk National University #Jeonbuk-do #Urban Shrinkage #Medium-Sized Cities

Introduction

Urban shrinkage represents a crucial stage in the lifecycle of cities, especially those within industrialized nations. As these urban areas mature, they often face the inevitability of population decline, leading to significant shifts in their socioeconomic landscapes. Recent research conducted by scholars from Jeonbuk National University sheds light on this phenomenon, particularly focusing on medium-sized cities in China, which have been largely overlooked in previous studies.

The Importance of Medium-Sized Cities

Medium-sized cities play a pivotal role in regional development, serving as essential centers for economic activity and social interaction. Despite their significance, the factors contributing to urban shrinkage within these cities have not been thoroughly examined. The researchers, led by Professor Jeewook Hwang and Ph.D. student DongLin Yuan, aimed to fill this gap by investigating the spatial patterns and socioeconomic drivers behind urban shrinkage at the county level.

Study Findings

Using comprehensive data from China's national censuses conducted in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the team's analysis revealed alarming trends: over 57.5% of the studied medium-sized county-level cities encountered urban shrinkage during this period. The researchers categorized these cities into five shrinkage levels, with the majority of cities experiencing a modest decline of 1% to 5%. This emphasizes the urgent need for tailored policy interventions.

Their geographical analysis indicated that shrinking cities tend to cluster geographically, and this clustering effect becomes increasingly pronounced with time. Notably, the distribution of urban shrinkage has shifted directionally, moving from northeast to southwest across the country.

Key Drivers of Urban Shrinkage

To better understand the underlying causes, the research employed a geographical detector model. The findings underscored the role of demographic factors, particularly the outmigration of the working-age population. This demographic shift is accompanied by a decline in the younger population, which is critical for sustaining local economies. Additionally, fiscal expenditures significantly influenced shrinkage, highlighting the need for increased investment in public services in these regions.

Interestingly, industrial and economic factors proved to exert a weaker influence on the decline, suggesting that social policies may hold the key to reversing these trends.

Policy Recommendations

Based on their conclusions, the researchers proposed a series of strategic policy recommendations aimed at mitigating urban shrinkage in medium-sized cities. These include:

• - Establishing special economic zones to stimulate local economies.
• - Enhancing educational systems and welfare services to retain and attract residents.
• - Optimizing the industrial structure to adapt to changing demographic landscapes.

These proposals are aimed at creating a more sustainable urban environment, facilitating long-term growth and revitalization.

Conclusion

Professor Hwang summarized the findings, stating, "This research provides critical insights into which medium-sized cities are most vulnerable to shrinkage and the essential factors driving this trend. We aspire that our findings will not only inform policymakers but also contribute to effective, sustainable urban development strategies for these cities." The work marks an important step towards understanding and addressing urban shrinkage, urging local governments to take proactive measures to ensure the vitality of these essential urban areas.

Reference

• - Title of original paper: Urban Shrinkage in Medium-Sized Cities: Trajectories and Influencing Factors
• - Journal: Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Volume 151, Issue 3, DOI: 10.1061/JUPDDM.UPENG-5631