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IAB 2026 Outlook Study: Projecting 9.5% Growth in U.S. Ad Spend

The latest report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) reveals an optimistic outlook for U.S. advertising expenditure in 2026, forecasting a 9.5% growth over the previous year. This increase is spurred by a swift transition from mere experimentation to full-scale execution of artificial intelligence (AI) within the advertising landscape. The study, which draws insights from over 200 leading brands and agency buyers, emphasizes the shift towards performance-driven marketing strategies and the growing importance of agentic AI in shaping advertising decisions.

A Transformative Phase in Advertising

David Cohen, CEO of IAB, highlights that the current phase represents a shift towards innovation and experimentation within the advertising sector. The report indicates that despite potential disruptive forces in the market, advertisers remain focused on a growth trajectory for the year. AI-powered tools are being adopted on a larger scale, enhancing both the efficiency and effectiveness of marketing campaigns.

As advertisers rapidly integrate AI into their planning and execution processes, the report identifies a clear trend: five out of the top six areas of focus for marketers are now directly linked to AI technologies. This underscores the speed with which these tools have transitioned from experimental phases into essential components of the advertising infrastructure.

Key Marketing Priorities and AI Integration

With the accelerated adoption of agentic AI, marketers are increasingly emphasizing accountability and measurable results. The study reports a rise in cross-platform measurement approaches, growing from 64% to 72% year-over-year. This shift illustrates an urgent need to connect AI-driven implementation strategies with tangible outcomes.

Advertisers are recalibrating their focus to embrace autonomous decision-making, optimization, and planning systems. Remarkably, two-thirds of marketers are committing to AI for ad buying and campaign execution, reflecting a noteworthy shift in how advertising strategies are conceptualized and executed. Moreover, 73% of brands now prioritize content specifically tailored for AI-driven search visibility and engagement, signifying a profound impact on creative structuring and delivery.

Chris Bruderle, Vice President of Industry Insights at IAB, noted that AI has evolved into a crucial connective force, linking various elements of marketing including media, creative, measurement, and customer experience. The deployment of agentic AI is transitioning toward a model that fosters real-time campaign coordination, marking a substantial departure from traditional methodologies.

Emerging Trends in Ad Spend

As digital channels lead the predicted ad expenditure growth, a breakdown of these projections reveals substantial increases across several platforms. Social media is expected to surge by 14.6%, followed closely by connected TV with 13.8%, and commerce media at 12.1%. These increases reflect advertisers' growing reliance on AI methodologies to enhance target precision and effectiveness in measuring campaign performance.

Conversely, traditional linear TV is anticipated to experience a minor decline of 1.7%, a slowdown compared to previous years. This decline is cushioned by significant media events like the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and American midterm elections, which are expected to stimulate occasional spikes in viewership and advertising demand.

Adapting to Consumer Behavior and AI Challenges

Evolving consumer behavior necessitates a reevaluation of marketing priorities, introducing a new hierarchy of challenges for buyers. The study indicates that adapting to shifting consumer habits now ranks as the primary investment challenge, overtaking traditional macroeconomic concerns. Additionally, a majority (38%) of buyers identify understanding generative AI as a growing challenge—a notable increase from previous years, accentuating the need for enhanced fluency regarding AI applications in marketing.

While customer acquisition remains the leading goal, its significance appears to be waning, dropping by 10% from last year to 54%. Simultaneously, the emphasis on driving repeat purchases has experienced consistent growth, now accounting for 25% of objectives, nearly doubling since 2024. As the integration of agentic AI streamlines budget allocation, audience targeting, and campaign optimization, many advertisers are witnessing enhanced retention strategies, paving the way for more scalable and predictable outcomes.

Bruderle posits that brands are recalibrating their growth strategies, especially in light of rising acquisition costs and maturing first-party data ecosystems. The deployment of agentic AI provides marketers with a sophisticated tool to harness their data assets and drive personalized experiences, thereby cultivating customer loyalty and repeat purchases at a larger scale.

Conclusion and Future Insights

The comprehensive IAB report, titled "2026 Outlook Study: A Snapshot into U.S. Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth," is now available for download. The insights outlined in the report indicate a robust future for the advertising landscape, revolving around innovation, AI integration, and the unwavering pursuit of performance-driven marketing strategies.

For more insights, visit the IAB's official website to access the full report and explore the predicted trends shaping the future of advertising.