#Japan #Osaka #Economic Analysis #Restaurant Trends #Review Company

Understanding the Shift in Restaurant Openings in Japan

As Japan's economic landscape continues to evolve, so too does the approach to opening restaurants across the nation. According to a recent analysis by Review, a data-driven company based in Osaka, the dynamics of restaurant openings have shifted from merely increasing the number of establishments to a more refined selection process. Their latest report based on the opening statistics of 15,248 restaurants nationwide from April to June 2025 sheds light on these trends, revealing a complex interplay of factors affecting the industry.

A Period of Adjustment Rather Than Recovery

Review's findings indicate that the number of new restaurant openings has not experienced a straightforward recovery. In fact, during the period from 2023 to 2025, the quarterly openings saw a decline, with 17,405 in 2023, 14,750 in 2024, and a slight rise to 15,248 in 2025. However, this uptick is not sufficient to return to the 2023 level.

This downward trend reflects not just a temporary economic fluctuation but a response to various persistent cost factors such as rising minimum wages, high raw material and logistics costs, and difficulties in securing staff. The overall caution in making new openings is driven by a focus on profitability and sustainability rather than sheer expansion.

Divergence Between Urban and Rural Areas

Analyzing new restaurant openings by region reveals stark differences between urban and rural areas. Major urban centers like Tokyo (2,142 openings), Osaka (1,340), Aichi (926), and Kanagawa (752) continue to lead in new establishments. While cities see a steady number of openings in prime locations, there is a marked shift towards smaller-scale operations and specialized business models, particularly in light of high rental prices and staffing challenges.

Conversely, in rural areas, regions like Hokkaido (810) and Okinawa (435) are capitalizing on a revival in tourism and local events, which has resulted in a handful of openings. However, growth is cautious, driven by rigorous analysis of location and commercial viability.

Strategic Timing and Business Models

The data also highlights emerging strategies regarding the timing and type of restaurant openings. In 2025, rather than clustering openings at the beginning of the fiscal year, businesses are opting for a staggered approach that considers labor availability and supply chain conditions.

Particularly prevalent are:

• - Specialized single-concept restaurants
• - Takeout and delivery-focused establishments
• - Small-scale, labor-efficient designs

These strategies illustrate a transition away from rapid expansion towards thoughtfully designed, sustainable restaurant models.

Future Directions for Restaurant Openings

Lessons from the data suggest that future restaurant openings will increasingly need to consider:

• - Location selection based on market size and target demographics
• - Cost-effective designs for initial investment and ongoing expenses
• - Operational systems that prioritize staffing stability

The current data reveals that the decision-making process is not merely about whether to open new restaurants, but more critically about how and where to open them. The industry has entered a new paradigm where design and strategic planning are paramount.

Conclusion

The restaurant industry is navigating a significant transformation influenced by economic pressures such as rising costs and labor shortages. This marks a departure from the previous era where simply opening a restaurant was seen as a formula for success. It is now essential to focus on strategic location, timing, and business model. Each decision made by restaurant owners contributes to the fabric of local communities, fostering vibrancy and supporting everyday life. Review aims to provide valuable insights that assist stakeholders in the food service industry to understand and adapt to these changes effectively. In doing so, we strive to deliver information that supports informed, strategic decisions for future restaurant openings across Japan.

For more details, please refer to the full report: National Restaurant Opening Report Ver.6