#Japan #Tokyo #ManpowerGroup #Labor Shortages #Employment Forecast

Japan's Employment Forecast for Q1 2026

Introduction

ManpowerGroup, a leading workforce solutions provider based in Tokyo, has recently released its employment forecast survey results for the first quarter of 2026 (January to March). This quarterly survey, conducted across 41 countries, assesses companies' hiring intentions and helps to gauge the overall employment landscape.

Survey Overview

The survey, which focused on companies in major Japanese cities including Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, gathered responses from 1,063 companies. The findings, derived from the question regarding changes in employment plans compared to the previous quarter, reveal a net employment outlook of +18% after seasonal adjustments. This figure represents a 5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 4 percentage point rise compared to the same period last year.

Key Findings

The survey results indicate an overall positive sentiment regarding hiring intentions, with the following highlights:

• - Seasonally Adjusted Net Employment Outlook: The net employment forecast rose to +18% in Q1 2026, marking the highest level since the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic began influencing hiring strategies in Q3 2020.
• - By Industry: Across eight industries, including information services, manufacturing, and services, increases in hiring are anticipated. Information services lead the charge, predicting a +28% net employment outlook, a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter.
• - By Organizational Size: Among different organizational sizes, companies with 1,000 to 4,999 employees project the highest net employment outlook at +30%, reflecting a robust hiring strategy that underscores their growth ambitions despite ongoing labor market challenges.

Understanding the Net Employment Outlook

The net employment forecast is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies planning to reduce their workforce from those planning to increase it. For this survey, 31% of companies indicated they would increase hiring, while 14% expected to reduce their workforce, ultimately leading to a positive outlook when adjusted for seasonal variations.

Global Context

When compared to the global average of +24%, Japan's net employment outlook of +18% shows a slower yet steady recovery in hiring intentions. Notably, 39 out of the 41 countries surveyed indicated an increase in hiring plans.

Challenges Posing Threats to Hiring

Despite the optimistic forecasts, several challenges weigh heavily on the employment market in Japan. A significant concern is the ongoing labor shortage, which has led to an increased number of bankruptcies related to labor shortages. Reports indicate that in 2025 alone, there were 323 such bankruptcies, exceeding the previous year's total by the end of October. Factors contributing to this include difficulties in recruitment, rising labor costs, and higher turnover rates.

This environment has shifted corporate strategies from proactive hiring aimed at growth to a more defensive stance where securing staff becomes a critical survival issue for many businesses. As a result, the demand for employees continues to outpace the available talent in key sectors.

Conclusion

The results of the ManpowerGroup employment forecast survey underscore both the resilience and challenges facing the labor market in Japan as we move into 2026. The data reflect a mixed outlook: while hiring intentions are on the rise, companies must navigate through significant labor shortages and other economic challenges. The labor market landscape is expected to further polarize into sectors thriving on labor demand against those facing potential declines owing to automation and efficiency improvements.

For ongoing updates and insights related to the employment landscape, please refer to the detailed employment forecast available on the ManpowerGroup website.

Additional Insights

• - About ManpowerGroup: ManpowerGroup® provides comprehensive workforce solutions, drawing on over 75 years of experience in various sectors to support organizational transformation worldwide. Recognized for promoting diversity and inclusion, ManpowerGroup continues to be a leader in ethical business practices.

For more information about the ManpowerGroup employment forecast survey, please visit ManpowerGroup's official site.