Consumer Confidence in the United States Drops to a 13-Year Low in April 2025

On April 29, 2025, the Conference Board released troubling information regarding the state of consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. The Consumer Confidence Index® experienced a notable decline of 7.9 points, bringing it down to 86.0, a figure reminiscent of the challenges faced during the early COVID-19 pandemic. This dramatic drop has raised alarms about consumer sentiment and the overall economic outlook.

Key Highlights of the Report

The report outlined two key components: the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index. The Present Situation Index, which evaluates consumers' views on current business and labor market conditions, decreased marginally by 0.9 points to reach 133.5. In contrast, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumer outlook for income, business resilience, and the job market, plummeted 12.5 points down to 54.4. This figure is the lowest recorded since October 2011, a time that many may recall as another period of economic uncertainty. Typically, a reading below 80 raises the specter of an impending recession.

Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard emphasized that this ongoing decline in consumer confidence has now persisted for five consecutive months, a concerning trend. She pointed out that the decline is primarily attributed to consumers' grim expectations—particularly concerning business conditions, employment opportunities, and income prospects. Worryingly, 32.1% of consumers indicated they expected fewer jobs over the next six months, a statistic approaching the levels observed during the Great Recession in April 2009.

Broader and More Severe Impacts

The decline in consumer confidence isn't confined to any single demographic. The downturn in sentiment is widespread, impacting various age groups and income levels, with the most significant decreases noted among individuals aged 35 to 55 and those earning more than $125,000 annually. Notably, despite differing political affiliations, national anxiety regarding economic stability appears to be universally shared.

Compounding these issues, financial market volatility in April drove even deeper negativity regarding the stock market. A striking 48.5% of consumers now anticipate a decline in stock prices over the next year—the highest proportion since late 2011. Furthermore, average inflation expectations soared to 7%, the most elevated level since November 2022.

The report also illuminated that consumers' concerns are not limited to general economic conditions. Rising tariffs are becoming a focal point, with mentions of them at an all-time high among survey respondents. These tariffs are perceived as likely to escalate prices, further exacerbating consumer anxiety about the overall economy.

Financial Perspectives and Future Outlook

Despite the dreary sentiment regarding the economy, consumers maintained a generally positive view of their current financial situations. Nonetheless, their outlook on family finances has noticeably weakened, alongside increasing predictions of a recession within the next twelve months—a metric that has reached a two-year peak among the surveyed population.

In terms of purchasing behavior, plans to buy homes and vehicles have experienced a downturn. Broadly, intents to spend on services have declined, causing a ripple effect across nearly all sectors. Dining out, once a strong area of consumer spending, has shown one of the steepest declines in intention month-on-month during April.

Present Situation and Expectations Moving Forward

Data reflecting consumers' current assessments presented a mixed view. On one hand, 19.2% of respondents viewed business conditions as 'good,' an increase from 18.3% in March. Conversely, sentiment regarding the availability of jobs dipped: 31.7% claimed jobs were 'plentiful,' a notable drop from the previous month.

Looking six months ahead, the outlook has grown increasingly pessimistic: the proportion of consumers expecting improved business conditions decreased to 15.7%, while those anticipating deterioration rose to 34.8%. Similarly, expectations of job availability have fallen sharply.

In conclusion, this month's findings from the Consumer Confidence Survey, conducted by The Conference Board in collaboration with Toluna Technology, paint a stark picture of an economy grappling with consumer uncertainty. The cut-off for preliminary results was April 21, highlighting an urgent need for policymakers and stakeholders to address these pressing concerns as they emerge from the shadows of the pandemic and navigate toward economic recovery.