#United States #Fort Wayne #Steel Dynamics #Earnings Guidance #Aluminum Operations

Steel Dynamics: Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Guidance

Steel Dynamics, Inc., a key player in the industrial metals sector, has provided its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company estimates earnings between $1.65 and $1.69 per diluted share. This forecast reflects a notable decrease compared to the previous quarter, where earnings stood at $2.74 per diluted share and the same quarter last year, which saw earnings of $1.36 per diluted share.

Factors Influencing Earnings

The reduced earnings forecast for Q4 2025 is driven by several factors impacting profitability, particularly in its steel operations. The anticipated results indicate a substantial decline due to lower average realized selling prices and reduced production volumes. Seasonal demand fluctuations and the necessary maintenance outages at their flat rolled steel mills contributed to this downturn.

During this quarter, it is estimated that the volume of flat rolled steel production dropped by approximately 140,000 to 150,000 tons. Further compounding these issues, hot-rolled steel prices have seen a decline of over $70 per ton from July to October 2025, which negatively influences the company’s selling values.

Metals Recycling Operations

In addition to steel operations, Steel Dynamics' metal recycling branch is also poised to decline in earnings compared to the third quarter. This is largely due to lower seasonal shipments and a decrease in ferrous scrap demand resulting from ongoing maintenance activities in the domestic steel industry.

Both ferrous and nonferrous price indices have shown a downward trend, further stressing profitability in this segment.

Steel Fabrication and Aluminum Production

Turning to steel fabrication operations, the forecast suggests a dip in earnings, driven by seasonal shipment reductions that exceed modest increases in metal spread. However, the order backlog remains robust, extending well into the second quarter of 2026, supported by healthy pricing. Current orders indicate consistent activity and improvement expectations for the coming year, as macroeconomic factors like declining interest rates and the U.S. infrastructure program's support are likely to enhance demand.

Moreover, Steel Dynamics is making significant strides in its aluminum production capabilities. The commissioning of their Columbus, Mississippi aluminum flat rolled products mill and the satellite recycled slab center in San Luis Potosí showcases the company's commitment to diversifying its offerings. Recent production outputs include finished products aimed at the industrial and beverage can sectors, highlighting successful qualifications from numerous can sheet consumers. An ongoing focus on automotive applications through aluminum hot band production is noteworthy.

Stock Repurchase and Future Outlook

In recent moves, Steel Dynamics has repurchased around $200 million of its common stock throughout Q4 2025, equating to roughly one percent of its total stock.

The company plans to release full fourth quarter earnings before the market opens on January 26, 2026. Following this announcement, a conference call is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. EST to address the performance of the company.

Conclusion

Steel Dynamics stands out as a leader in North America’s industrial metals sector, adeptly maneuvering through market challenges and focusing on sustainability through a circular manufacturing approach. They remain dedicated to producing high-quality, diversified metal products while adapting to market fluctuations and customer demands. The company combines traditional steel production with innovative aluminum solutions, signaling its commitment to evolving within the rapidly changing industrial landscape, ensuring a comprehensive answer to modern manufacturing needs.