#United States #Chicago #project44 #Southeast Asia #U.S.-China Trade

Project44's 2025 Tariff Report Highlights Major Trade Shifts

project44 has published its comprehensive 2025 tariff report, which showcases significant changes in global trade dynamics as a result of evolving tariff policies. The report reveals that U.S. trade with China has faced one of its sharpest contractions in recent years, with imports falling by 28% and exports plummeting by 38% in 2025. This downturn signals a crucial turning point in the international trade landscape, particularly for U.S.-China relations.

Key Insights from the 2025 Tariff Report

Significant Declines in U.S.-China Trade

The data indicates that in 2025, U.S. imports from China were starkly depressed, showcasing a year-over-year decline of 28%. Meanwhile, exports to China saw an alarming drop of 38%, marking an unprecedented dip in bilateral trade activity. This sharp decline demonstrates not only the impact of tariff implementations but also the shifting nature of global supply chains in response to these changes.

Late-Year Export Improvement Signals Stabilization?

Despite the overall decline in trade, 2025 saw promising signs of stabilization in U.S. exports to China during the final months of the year. While exports to the country trended 38% lower earlier in the year, a notable recovery was observed in the fourth quarter. Notably, November recorded a decrease of just 23% year-over-year followed by a significant rebound in December, where exports increased by 13%—marking the first positive month for U.S. exports to China since the tariffs were implemented in April.

South-East Asia Captures Sourcing Share

The report also highlights the remarkable rise of Southeast Asian nations as alternative sourcing options. Imports from Indonesia surged by an impressive 34% while Thailand recorded a 28% increase in trade with the U.S. This shift indicates that U.S. companies are diversifying their sourcing strategies away from China, with Southeast Asia emerging as a key player in the global supply chain.

Blank Sailings Normalization Reflects Capacity Adjustments

Another factor highlighted in the report is the normalization of blank sailings, which declined from 131 in April to just 62 by December, indicating that shipping carriers are modifying their capacities in response to the shifting trade dynamics. This reduction in blank sailings suggests that carriers are aligning their operations to the new baseline of decreased trade volumes, a shift that could have lasting implications for shipping logistics.

China's Trade Surplus Grows

Interestingly, the ongoing trade surplus in China suggests that the nation is successfully expanding its commercial ties with other regions, even as its trade relationship with the U.S. contracts. The increasing trade volumes with Southeast Asia imply a broader shift in global trade partnerships.

Future Implications

The report represents a significant marker in how global trade is adapting to new tariff environments, offering insights that will shape operational decisions moving forward. While legal challenges surrounding tariff authority may soon reshape these trade dynamics further in 2026, for now, the data illustrates a clear transition toward new trade paths, especially for U.S. companies seeking to mitigate risks associated with reliance on Chinese imports.

project44 positions itself as a central player in decision intelligence for modern supply chains, ensuring businesses navigate these evolving landscapes effectively. The full 2025 tariff report is accessible through project44's Supply Chain Insights hub, offering in-depth analysis and data crucial for stakeholders across various industries.

For more information on project44 and its solutions, visit project44.com.