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Global Employment Outlook Remains Steady at 24%

The latest Employment Outlook Survey from ManpowerGroup, conducted with over 39,000 employers across 41 countries, reveals that global hiring expectations are holding steady as we head into 2026. The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for the first quarter stands at 24%, indicating a cautious yet stable labor market amidst evolving economic factors.

Recent Trends in Hiring

While there has been a slight annual decrease of 4% from the previous year, it's notable that the outlook has improved by 4% from the last quarter. The survey highlights that about 40% of organizations are planning to increase their workforce, with the same proportion intending to maintain their current staff levels. Only 16% foresee a reduction in their workforce, painting a picture of a resilient economy that is adapting rather than contracting under pressure.

Among the factors driving increases in hiring, 37% point to organizational growth as a key motivator, with 26% investing in new business areas. This is a stark contrast to the trend of backfilling positions—only 19% of new hires are filling roles left by departed employees. This shift underscores a strategic re-evaluation of workforce needs and aims to maintain competitiveness in a dynamic market.

Interestingly, the impact of automation on employment decisions seems to be less significant than anticipated, with only 20% of employers attributing workforce reductions directly to this factor. Instead, economic conditions are cited as the primary reason for hesitancy in hiring, with 29% of employers citing economic challenges.

Size Matters: The Influence of Organization Size on Hiring Outlook

The survey shows that larger organizations, those with 5,000+ employees, are more cautious about hiring, reporting the weakest outlook of 21%—a figure significantly lower than previous quarters. On the other hand, mid-sized companies (those employing 250 to 999) exhibited the most optimistic hiring outlook at 28%, showcasing their adaptability and growth potential in the current market environment.

Sector-Specific Insights

Diving deeper into sector-specific hiring trends, organizations in Finance and Insurance (32%), Information (29%), and Construction and Real Estate (27%) showcase the most robust hiring plans. Conversely, sectors like Public Sector and Health and Social Services exhibit more cautious attitudes, with hiring outlooks of only 20% and 22% respectively.

Regional Highlights

Regionally, Asia Pacific continues to lead globally with an impressive outlook of 30%—an unchanged figure from the previous quarter but up three points year-over-year. Among the countries in this region, India showcases the highest confidence level at a remarkable 52%. In stark contrast, Hong Kong reflects caution with a mere 1% outlook.

The Americas follow with a strong hiring outlook of 26%, although further inspections reveal a decline from previous years. Within this region, Brazil stands out as a global leader in confidence at 54%, while the U.S. marks a reasonable 27%, displaying a dichotomy in confidence levels across the continent.

In Europe and the Middle East, employers are exhibiting a more reserved approach with a combined hiring outlook of 20%. The United Arab Emirates leads this region at 46%, while the U.K. and Romania roll in with the most cautious expectations at 13% and 0% respectively.

Conclusion

ManpowerGroup's Employment Outlook Survey continues to reflect a meticulously evolving labor market. As we navigate economic uncertainties, organizations emphasize strategic hiring practices tailored to current market needs rather than traditional backfilling approaches. With the next survey set for March 2026, employers and policymakers alike will be keen to see how these trends evolve amidst broader economic conditions. For a detailed view of the survey results, visit ManpowerGroup's page.