Friends of Science Seeks Reassessment of Climate Emergency Scenario in Canada Banking Policy

Background

In a significant move impacting climate policy in Canada, the Friends of Science Society has publicly addressed the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) regarding the widely debated climate scenario known as RCP 8.5. This scenario, which has been pivotal for assessing climate risk in financial contexts, is now deemed implausible by a committee overseeing climate scenario design. This revelation was brought to light in an open letter dated May 7, 2026, signaling an important shift in the conversation surrounding climate assessments and their implications for policy and banking.

Shift in Climate Scenarios

The open letter references insights from climate policy analyst Roger Pielke, Jr., who has declared RCP 8.5 officially dead due to its unrealistic assumptions. The new framework provided by the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) will be foundational for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR7 report. This report plays a crucial role in shaping governmental climate strategies and guiding assessments of climate risks by financial institutions.

Organisations such as Friends of Science have consistently pointed to RCP 8.5's improbability and its unsuitability for banking evaluations of climate challenges. Their prior communications to OSFI and the Bank of Canada have urged a more realistic approach to climate data interpretation.

Critique of Canada’s Climate Assessments

Canada’s Changing Climate Report (CCCR2019), which leveraged data from 1948 to 2016, claimed that Canada was warming at a rate nearly twice the global average. This assertion, promoted avidly by the government, was instrumental in justifying Canada's declaration of a climate emergency on June 18, 2019, and the subsequent implementation of stringent emissions reduction measures. However, the Friends of Science Society issued a counter-report, “Climate Change Your Mind,” shortly after June 2019. Their analysis highlighted discrepancies in this warming narrative, challenging the premise upon which many policy decisions have been based.

Disputes Over Temperature Data

Critics have emerged within the scientific community questioning the data that supports claims of accelerated warming in Canada. Notably, Tom Harris from the International Climate Science Coalition reported inconsistencies found by a former Bank of Canada data scientist, Dr. Joseph Hickey. Hickey's findings suggested significant anomalies in Canadian temperature records, particularly a puzzling temperature surge around 1998 that coincided with the Kyoto Accord—a timing that raised eyebrows regarding the accuracy and implications of such data.

Looking Ahead: Energy Investment and Policy

Currently, Friends of Science Society draws attention to Canada’s ambitions as an energy superpower amidst a global energy crisis. They argue that prioritizing renewable energy without a reliable conventional energy infrastructure could spell disaster, drawing parallels to recent blackouts experienced in European countries like Spain and Portugal. Their insights remind policymakers of the critical balance needed between renewable and traditional energy sources.

The voice of Friends of Science Society echoes the necessity for informed discussions on climate scenarios and their subsequent effects on economic policies and banking frameworks. Their insistence on revisiting what has been broadly accepted raises questions about the future direction of climate policy and the role continual assessment plays in shaping public and financial perceptions.

Conclusion

As the Friends of Science Society continues its advocacy, their position challenges existing narratives and urges a comprehensive reassessment of climate scenarios utilized in Canada. The outcome of this dialogue could have far-reaching implications, not just for national policies, but for how climate risk is perceived and integrated within the financial sector on a global scale.

The ongoing examination of climate data must, therefore, remain a priority as the world navigates the complexities of climate change, energy security, and economic resilience.