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Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ Sees Positive Growth in March 2025

In March 2025, The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) recorded a positive shift, increasing to 109.03 from a revised 108.47 in February. This notable growth signals a potential upturn in employment opportunities. The ETI serves as a leading composite index for payroll employment, reflecting trends and forecasts in job growth. An upward trajectory in the Index often indicates forthcoming job growth, while a downward trend may suggest delays in hiring.

Mitchell Barnes, an economist at The Conference Board, expressed that this rise occurred ahead of recent tariff announcements, illustrating that the labor market remained robust throughout March. The report details that initial claims for unemployment insurance—one of the components of the ETI—decreased in March after rising in February due to layoffs from various sectors such as federal and private organizations. Interestingly, the share of involuntary part-time workers also saw a decrease, dropping to 17.4%, down from 18% in February.

Additionally, there was a slight decline in the percentage of consumers claiming that jobs were difficult to find, falling to 15.7% in March, following a five-month high. Conversely, a significant increase was observed in the number of small businesses unable to fill job positions, which jumped to 40%, marking the highest share since August 2024.

Barnes noted, “The ETI highlights that while labor demand remains healthy, the announced layoffs have yet to result in tangible slack in the job market.” However, there are concerns that government job cuts and the introduction of tariffs could elevate the unemployment rate from 4.2% to around 4.7% over the year.

The temporary-help industry experienced a decline in employment for the third consecutive month, amassing a total loss of 25,000 jobs in the first quarter alone. February's job openings did not meet expectations, falling nearly 200,000 despite an earlier rise in January. Still, the recent increase in industrial production and real manufacturing sales hints at a proactive ramp-up of activities ahead of the forthcoming tariffs, indicating a complex interplay of forces affecting the labor market.

Barnes further elaborated, “While the US labor market seems resilient as seen in March’s data, plummeting confidence among businesses and consumers could introduce new challenges in the months ahead.” The rise in the Employment Trends Index stemmed from favorable contributions from six of its eight indicators:

1. The Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. The Percentage of Firms reporting Positions Unable to Fill (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation).
3. Job Openings as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. The Percentage of Respondents Who Find Jobs Hard to Get (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®).
5. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance data from the US Department of Labor.
6. Industrial Production statistics from the Federal Reserve Board.

The ETI is not just a standalone indicator but an aggregation of eight leading indicators that have displayed predictive accuracy in their respective domains. This composite index assists in filtering out extraneous data, allowing analysts to appreciate underlying employment trends more effectively.

The eight indicators that constitute the ETI are pivotal in providing insights into the employment landscape:

• - Percentage of Respondents Who Report Finding Jobs Hard to Get.
• - Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
• - Percentage of Firms with Unfilled Positions.
• - Temporary-Help Sector Employment Numbers.
• - Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.
• - Job Openings.
• - Industrial Production.
• - Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The ETI serves as an important tool for businesses and policymakers, as it is released monthly—typically on the Monday following the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report—making it an essential resource for gauging the direction of the labor market. As The Conference Board continues to monitor these trends, stakeholders remain attentive to how economic policies and external factors, such as tariffs, will shape the employment landscape in the coming months.