Global Trade Leaders Show Optimism for 2026 Despite Challenges Ahead

In a recently released report by DP World, a prominent global logistics firm, business confidence appears to remain robust even amidst a delicate global trade landscape. The findings from the Global Trade Observatory (GTO) Annual Outlook Report for 2026 reveal that a significant 94% of executives expect trade growth to match or even surpass the levels achieved in 2025, despite mounting challenges such as tariffs, rising costs, and general policy uncertainty.

Conducted in advance of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting held in Davos, Switzerland, the survey amassed responses from 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight distinct industries and 19 countries. This diverse pool of insights provides an interesting perspective on the sector's outlook, illustrating a fundamental dichotomy between overall trade forecasts and on-the-ground sentiments.

Mixed Sentiments Amidst Policy Uncertainty

The survey indicates that while confidence remains high, a striking 53% of executives anticipate significant policy uncertainty moving into the new year. Moreover, an overwhelming 90% expect trade barriers to either rise or remain at current levels. Ultimately, only 25% anticipate a negative impact on their businesses, while a notable 49% expect no change, and 26% even foresee a positive impact. This sentiment stands in stark contrast to projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which estimates a slowdown in trade growth (by volume) to just 2.3% for 2026, a decline from 3.6% in 2025.

When asked about areas with the greatest trade growth potential for the coming year, executives pointed predominantly to Europe (22%) and China (17%), followed by the Asia Pacific region (14%) and North America (13%). This indicates an ongoing belief in the resilience and adaptability of major global players, particularly in complex markets.

DP World's Group Chairman and CEO Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem emphasized the intricacies facing global trade leaders today, stating, "Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities, and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably."

Evolving Strategies in Response to Volatility

The findings from the survey highlight key strategic shifts that companies are making in response to the ever-present volatility in the market. A remarkable 51% of executives noted an inclination toward supplier diversification, which signifies a strategic pivot to mitigate risks associated with relying on a specific source or region. Additionally, 44% mentioned they would maintain higher inventory levels, while 36% are considering 'friend-shoring,' where firms relocate production closer to home or to friendly countries.

By actively re-assessing their supply chains and exploring new trade routes, 26% of executives indicated they would actively use newly identified trade routes in 2026, while another 23% are currently evaluating alternatives. The motivation for these decisions primarily stems from a desire for cost savings (38%), an improvement in inland infrastructure and connectivity (36%), and the expediency of customs procedures (35%). This indicates a proactive approach to enhancing operational efficiency and reducing delays in the supply chain.

Conversely, customs clearance remains a key choke point, with 60% of survey respondents citing it as a leading cause of delays and disruptions. Consequently, a strong preference is seen for investments in warehousing and logistics hubs (39%), road networks (36%), and border/customs processing infrastructure (36%). Such strategic investments underscore the commitment by companies to streamline processes and reduce barriers that hamper trade.

Conclusion

The Global Trade Observatory's (GTO) Annual Outlook Report for 2026 serves as a critical barometer of business confidence amidst significant external pressures. As companies prepare to navigate an increasingly complex global trade environment, the insights highlighted in this report will undoubtedly play a vital role in shaping operational strategies moving forward. With businesses showing a remarkable degree of resilience, the ability to adapt and innovate in response to challenges will be paramount for success in the evolving landscape of global trade.