July Sees Decline in Conference Board Employment Trends Index, Indicating Job Market Stabilization
In July 2025, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) experienced a slight decrease, lowering to 107.55 from a revised 108.19 in June. This index serves as a reliable indicator for payroll employment trends in the upcoming months. Generally, when the ETI shows an upward movement, it suggests potential growth in employment, while a decline may signal upcoming job losses.
Mitchell Barnes, an economist at The Conference Board, noted that the July decline represented the lowest index level since October 2024. However, he emphasized that the ETI has remained relatively stable over the past year, which supports the view that the labor market is maintaining its overall stability while also suggesting that there are emerging risks.
July also saw a moderation in initial unemployment insurance claims, following three months of increases. The proportion of involuntary part-time workers slightly increased to 17.1% from 16.5% in June, although it has improved from a peak of 18% in February of the same year. Additionally, employment within the temporary-help industry suffered a reduction of 4,400 jobs in July, marking declines in six of the seven months in 2025.
"Companies are exhibiting caution due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and policies," added Barnes. "Rather than initiating layoffs, businesses seem to be opting for a more measured approach, as the unemployment rate and underemployment indicators remain relatively low."
The percentage of consumers indicating that finding jobs is challenging has risen from 17.2% in June to 18.9% in July, which is the highest level since March 2021. Conversely, the share of small businesses reporting that they cannot fill open positions decreased to 33% in July from 36% in June, representing the highest proportion since January 2021. Meanwhile, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data showed that job openings fell by 275,000 in June, bringing them down to 4% lower compared to January's levels.
Barnes noted mixed signals from the ETI readings throughout 2025. Despite the main metrics indicating relative stability, there is a noticeable moderation in some underlying indicators compared to earlier in the year. The decrease in the Employment Trends Index in July can be attributed to negative contributions from four of its eight components, which include the percentage of respondents reporting difficulty in finding jobs, the percentage of firms unable to fill positions, temporary-help industry employment, and the ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers.
On the other hand, the index positively reflected improvements in initial claims for unemployment insurance, job openings, real manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production.
This Employment Trends Index is formed from eight leading indicators that provide insight into employment trends, each having proven reliable in its respective area. By aggregating these individual indicators into a single composite index, the impact of outliers is minimized, allowing a clearer view of the overall employment landscape. The eight components aggregated into the ETI include:
1. Percentage of respondents who find "Jobs Hard to Get" (based on The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
2. Initial claims for unemployment insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
3. Percentage of firms with positions they cannot fill (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
4. Number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
5. Ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers (BLS)
6. Job openings (BLS)
7. Industrial production (Federal Reserve Board)
8. Real manufacturing and trade sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The ETI is published monthly by The Conference Board, coinciding with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report each month. The ETI aims to provide valuable insights into labor market conditions and employment trends, assisting businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions. For more information on the Employment Trends Index and its underlying methodologies, visit The Conference Board's website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
Mitchell Barnes, an economist at The Conference Board, noted that the July decline represented the lowest index level since October 2024. However, he emphasized that the ETI has remained relatively stable over the past year, which supports the view that the labor market is maintaining its overall stability while also suggesting that there are emerging risks.
July also saw a moderation in initial unemployment insurance claims, following three months of increases. The proportion of involuntary part-time workers slightly increased to 17.1% from 16.5% in June, although it has improved from a peak of 18% in February of the same year. Additionally, employment within the temporary-help industry suffered a reduction of 4,400 jobs in July, marking declines in six of the seven months in 2025.
"Companies are exhibiting caution due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and policies," added Barnes. "Rather than initiating layoffs, businesses seem to be opting for a more measured approach, as the unemployment rate and underemployment indicators remain relatively low."
The percentage of consumers indicating that finding jobs is challenging has risen from 17.2% in June to 18.9% in July, which is the highest level since March 2021. Conversely, the share of small businesses reporting that they cannot fill open positions decreased to 33% in July from 36% in June, representing the highest proportion since January 2021. Meanwhile, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data showed that job openings fell by 275,000 in June, bringing them down to 4% lower compared to January's levels.
Barnes noted mixed signals from the ETI readings throughout 2025. Despite the main metrics indicating relative stability, there is a noticeable moderation in some underlying indicators compared to earlier in the year. The decrease in the Employment Trends Index in July can be attributed to negative contributions from four of its eight components, which include the percentage of respondents reporting difficulty in finding jobs, the percentage of firms unable to fill positions, temporary-help industry employment, and the ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers.
On the other hand, the index positively reflected improvements in initial claims for unemployment insurance, job openings, real manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production.
This Employment Trends Index is formed from eight leading indicators that provide insight into employment trends, each having proven reliable in its respective area. By aggregating these individual indicators into a single composite index, the impact of outliers is minimized, allowing a clearer view of the overall employment landscape. The eight components aggregated into the ETI include:
1. Percentage of respondents who find "Jobs Hard to Get" (based on The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
2. Initial claims for unemployment insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
3. Percentage of firms with positions they cannot fill (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
4. Number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
5. Ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers (BLS)
6. Job openings (BLS)
7. Industrial production (Federal Reserve Board)
8. Real manufacturing and trade sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The ETI is published monthly by The Conference Board, coinciding with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report each month. The ETI aims to provide valuable insights into labor market conditions and employment trends, assisting businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions. For more information on the Employment Trends Index and its underlying methodologies, visit The Conference Board's website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
Topics General Business）
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