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Economic Optimism Edges Down Yet Company Outlooks Improve

In the latest Economic Outlook Survey conducted by AICPA and CIMA, business executives report a notable decrease in their optimism regarding the broader U.S. economy while simultaneously expressing increasing confidence in their own company's prospects. This quarterly survey, which polled key figures such as CEOs and CFOs, highlighted mixed sentiments about the economic climate.

Key Findings

According to the survey conducted from November 3 to 26, 2025, only 28% of executives feel optimistic about the U.S. economy for the next year, representing a drop from 34% in the previous quarter. The primary concerns influencing this dip in confidence are domestic economic conditions and inflation, which have shifted positions in comparison to the earlier report. The political landscape also emerged as a significant concern, ranking third for the first time since the second quarter of 2021.

Notably, the uncertainty tied to changing tariff schedules has somewhat lessened, with 49% of executives reporting moderate to substantial uncertainty in their business planning—down from 58% last quarter. While a majority of respondents indicated that the recent 43-day federal government shutdown had minimal impact on operations, those affected cited declines in consumer spending and regulatory delays as key issues.

Corporate Outlook Improves

While the overall outlook for the economy is less than optimistic, the survey indicates a brighter perspective on individual companies' performance. 41% of executives expect improved performance for their businesses, an increase from 37% previously. Furthermore, a higher percentage, 48%, anticipate expanding their operations, up from 46% in the last quarter. This positive trend is a critical indicator of resilience among businesses despite external economic pressures.

Tom Hood, CPA, CGMA, CITP, and executive vice president of business engagement and growth at AICPA, commented, "Despite a minor decrease in overall economic optimism, we are witnessing a mixed picture that reflects the ongoing volatility companies are encountering. The positive aspect is that executives are feeling more favorable about their companies' expected performance, illustrated by slight increases in profit and revenue projections."

Recession Concerns and Hiring Stability

The survey findings noted a slight decline in the expectation of a recession, with 52% of executives now predicting a recession by the end of 2026, down from 54%. Additionally, the hiring landscape remained stable, with many executives reporting they currently have the right number of employees. 32% indicated they were understaffed—down slightly from the previous survey—while those feeling overstaffed also saw a minor decrease.

Growth Projections

Good news emerged with projected revenue growth expectations rising to 2%, a marginal increase from 1.5% last quarter. Profit growth expectations also saw a modest rise to 0.8%, up from 0.1%. This shift suggests that, although there are undeniable economic struggles, a segment of the business community is finding ways to thrive amidst uncertainty.

Final Thoughts

The AICPA and CIMA survey serves as a forward-looking indicator for business expectations, shedding light on hiring and operational strategies for the next year. Despite the prevailing concerns surrounding economic conditions, the resilience demonstrated by many businesses bodes well for the future. As executives navigate these challenging landscapes, fostering strong company foundations will be essential to endure the fluctuating economy.

For more detailed insights from the survey, the full report is available at aicpa-cima.com.