#United States #New York #Consumer Confidence #Conference Board #Economic Outlook

US Consumer Confidence Holds Steady in October 2025

The latest data from The Conference Board shows that the Consumer Confidence Index® for October 2025 decreased marginally to 94.6, down from a revised 95.6 in September. This small dip of 1.0 point is primarily offset by a notable increase in the Present Situation Index, which rose to 129.3, reflecting a slight improvement in consumers' outlook on current business and employment conditions.

Current Economic Assessments

The Present Situation Index serves as a crucial indicator of consumers' perceptions regarding the present state of the economy, particularly focusing on the business climate and job market. The consumer sentiment in October indicates that people perceive current business conditions as slightly more favorable than the previous month. Specifically, 20.2% of respondents described business conditions as "good," a slight increase from September.

In terms of job availability, the labor market appears to be gaining some confidence, with 27.8% of consumers declaring jobs as "plentiful." However, a slight rise in the percentage of those who consider jobs to be "hard to get" may signify lingering concerns about employment stability. As consumers navigate these economic fluctuations, it becomes evident that perceptions can vary significantly across different demographic groups.

Variations Among Demographics

The data reveals that confidence levels are generally divided by age and income. Young consumers under 35 experienced a drop in confidence, likely influenced by ongoing job market challenges, while those aged 35 to 54 showed increased optimism. Income plays a critical role as well; individuals earning more than $75,000 saw an uptick in confidence, particularly those in the highest income bracket.

Interestingly, partisan affiliations influenced perceptions of economic conditions too. Independents reported a boost in confidence, while Democrats and Republicans showed slight declines, hinting at a complex interplay between personal financial outlooks and political sentiments.

Future Economic Expectations

While current conditions seem stable, the Expectations Index, which captures consumers' short-term outlook on income, business, and employment, revealed a drop of 2.9 points to 71.5. This index dipped below the critical threshold of 80, suggesting recession fears that have persisted since February 2025.

In October, consumers exhibited increased pessimism regarding future job availability, with the percentage of those expecting more jobs falling to 15.8%. Furthermore, fewer respondents anticipated improvements in business conditions over the next six months, with only 19.0% remaining optimistic. The overall economic sentiment appears cautious, colored by concerns about inflation and its ongoing impact on purchasing behavior.

Consumer Spending Trends

Consumers remain vigilant about their financial situations amidst these changes. Although the average inflation expectation edged up to 5.9%, slightly above the previous month, it reflects persistent concerns about pricing pressures across various sectors. As holiday shopping approaches, preliminary projections suggest consumers intend to curb their spending, anticipating a reduction in gift purchases by 3.9% and a more significant 12% drop in non-gift spending compared to last year.

The upcoming holiday season will be pivotal as consumers cite promotions and price sensitivity as key factors in their shopping decisions. This behavior resonates with the broader sentiment that consumer spending may be constrained by economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures.

Conclusion

October’s Consumer Confidence data illustrates a complex landscape of cautious optimism mixed with tangible concerns about the economy’s trajectory. As the public navigates their current and future financial outlooks, the survey highlights the need for ongoing adjustments in consumer behavior while reflecting on the topic of inflation as a dominant influence. Looking ahead, consumers are poised for potential changes in their purchasing patterns, influenced heavily by political and economic conditions that continue to evolve.

The next comprehensive update on consumer confidence will be available at the end of November, shedding more light on how these trends develop as the holiday season unfolds.