May Sees Decline in Conference Board Employment Trends Index

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Drops in May

In May 2025, the latest data from the Conference Board revealed a noticeable decline in the Employment Trends Index (ETI), dropping to 107.49 from an upwardly revised 108.00 in April. The ETI serves as a key indicator of the employment market, and changes in this index are often seen as predictors of future job growth or losses. A decline in the index can signal an impending downturn in the labor market.

Mitchell Barnes, the Economist at The Conference Board, highlighted that the ETI’s decrease in May reflects a continued slowdown compared to earlier in the year. Despite concerns over tariffs and their impact on the economy, the ETI remains above the average levels observed from 2017 to 2019, suggesting that the labor market is fundamentally still in good shape.

Unemployment Claims and Job Availability

Initial claims for unemployment insurance, a component of the ETI, increased to 235,000 in May, marking the highest levels since July 2024. Furthermore, a rising percentage of consumers—now at 18.6%—are reporting that jobs are hard to get. This statistic, derived from the Consumer Confidence Survey®, has risen for the fourth consecutive month and equals the high noted in 2024.

The report reveals that 34% of small firms are struggling to fill job positions, which is the lowest figure since September. While hiring appears to maintain balance within the labor market for the time being, there are indications of sector-specific erosion which may pose emerging challenges.

Sectorial Changes and Employment Stability

One notable shift observed in May was a decline in employment within the temporary-help industry, which shed approximately 20,200 jobs amid a generally stable employment report. In the first five months of 2025, the industry has lost a total of 41,600 workers, suggesting increased volatility in temporary employment positions. However, the rate of involuntary part-time workers has dipped slightly to 17%, down from 18% in February, even though it remains elevated when compared to 2024 averages.

Despite these fluctuations, Barnes emphasized that consumer and business confidence does not appear to be weakening across the board. The data from May shows that hiring is still balancing the labor market well, although concerns remain regarding the impact of tariffs on various sectors.

Understanding the Employment Trends Index

The ETI is generated from eight leading indicators that help illustrate trends in employment, providing a comprehensive view of the job market. These indicators include the percentage of respondents indicating that jobs are hard to get, initial unemployment insurance claims, the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry, and various other employment statistics. This composite index helps eliminate irregularities in data, presenting a clearer outline of employment trends.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead

While the decline in the ETI in May is a notable concern, the overall employment landscape still appears robust, particularly when comparing current figures to historical averages. Policymakers and economists will be closely monitoring the Employment Trends Index and its components in the coming months to ascertain whether the recent shifts represent temporary adjustments or the onset of longer-term trends affecting the job market.

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, providing critical insights into employment patterns. Interested parties can access further technical details and historical data on their official website. The index will continue to serve as an essential tool in analyzing the future of the labor market and guiding both business and policy decisions.