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ISM® PMI® Seasonal Adjustments for 2026

On January 29, 2026, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) confirmed that it has successfully finalized its annual updates to the seasonal factors influencing both the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® and ISM® Services PMI® Reports for the current year. These adjustments play a key role in economic analysis, enabling economists and purchasing managers to understand market fluctuations more accurately.

The revised seasonal adjustment factors will impact the monthly reports released for January 2026. The results of these updates will become publicly available on February 2, 2026, for the Manufacturing PMI® and on February 4, 2026, for the Services PMI®. These reports are essential as they reflect changes in economic conditions and help gauge the overall health of the economy based on data collected from purchasing and supply executives across the nation.

Understanding Seasonal Adjustments

Seasonal adjustments are statistically calculated factors that allow analysts to account for periodic variations within data that typically occur due to predictable seasonal cycles. Factors like weather fluctuations, institutional programs, and holiday schedules often influence these changes annually. By adjusting the data for these variables, ISM® enhances the accuracy of the PMI® Reports, facilitating deeper insights into both manufacturing and service sectors.

For 2026, ISM® utilized the X-13-ARIMA program, a widely accepted statistical tool, to refine the previous seasonal factors used in the PMI calculations. ISM® will continue to evaluate these factors, updating them as needed with the release of actual data in early 2027.

Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Manufacturing

The seasonal adjustment factors for the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® for various categories, including New Orders, Production, and Employment, have shown significant projections for 2026. For example:

• - January 2026: New Orders (0.997), Production (0.985), Employment (0.991)
• - December 2026: New Orders (0.948), Production (0.936), Employment (0.978)

These adjustments are critical in calculating the manufacturing index to ensure reliable and relevant economic information.

Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Services

Similarly, the ISM® Services PMI® also underwent updates for each of its indexes. This includes adjustments for Business Activity and New Orders, which will likewise contribute to more accurate economic readings:

• - January 2026: Business Activity (0.939), New Orders (0.961), Employment (0.970)
• - December 2026: Business Activity (0.983), New Orders (0.965), Employment (0.996)

Each monthly report reflects the difference in current performance compared to previous months, providing a clearer picture for economic observers and stakeholders.

Importance of ISM® PMI® Reports

The ISM® PMI® Reports are renowned for their reliability as economic indicators. They serve as a barometer for economic health, offering crucial insights and trends for government agencies, economists, and businesses alike. By implementing seasonally adjusted factors, ISM® aims to ensure that all stakeholders have access to the most precise and timely data for strategic decisions.

With over 50,000 members globally, ISM® continues to be at the forefront of supply management, advancing practices that support robust economic performance. By reformulating seasonal factors annually, ISM® not only upholds its reputable status but also improves the quality and applicability of its offerings. Keep an eye on these reports, as they will greatly influence market strategies throughout the year.

For more details, visit ISM's Website.