#Germany #Munich #AI Threats #Cyber Operations #Recorded Future

Cyber Operations as a Core Component of Global Strategy

The recent release of Recorded Future's 2026 State of Security Report has brought to light the evolving nature of cyber operations in the context of global power dynamics. According to the report, cyber operations are no longer merely an adjunct to traditional military action; they have become integral to physical conflict, coercion, and intelligence gatherings. This changing landscape underscores how technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), are redefining what constitutes a national security threat.

During a panel discussion at the Munich Cyber Security Conference, Dr. Christopher Ahlberg, Co-Founder of Recorded Future, elaborated on the implications of these findings. He explained that the convergence of physical geopolitical tensions and cyber operations reached a significant milestone in 2025, marking a distinct inflection point. The current environment of geopolitical fragmentation coupled with AI's explosive growth has bred instability, making persistent cyber threats the norm.

Levi Gundert, Chief Security Intelligence Officer at Recorded Future, articulated that the nature of uncertainty has shifted from being occasional to becoming a foundational element of our security environment. As geopolitical norms erode, adversarial states are increasingly capable of leveraging aging infrastructures and technology for espionage and coercive measures. This blend of state objectives and criminal activities fosters a landscape ripe for manipulation.

Key Findings from the Report

The report highlights several critical findings:
1. Cyber as Coercion: Nation-states are beginning to harness cyber operations, especially access to network edges and infrastructure, as powerful strategic leverage points. In crises, this capability can be activated for coercive purposes, shifting the focus on physical deterrence to virtual dominance.
2. Focus on Identity: There has been a paradigm shift in cyber intrusions, with most serious breaches now emanating from stolen credentials rather than direct technical exploits. This emphasizes the critical need for robust identity management and access control systems within security frameworks.
3. AI-Driven Deception: While fully autonomous AI-driven cyber strikes remain a concept of the future, the present reality shows AI amplifying deception tactics in espionage and identity theft. This dynamic is contributing to a climate of profound mistrust, complicating decision-making in both governmental and corporate spheres.
4. State-Aligned Ecosystems: The report notes that cyber capabilities tied to state actors are proving to be resilient and adaptive. From Russian influence operations to North Korean sanction evasion via cyber means, these ecosystems present significant challenges that cannot be mitigated solely through policy changes.

Predictions for Cybersecurity in 2026

Looking ahead, the report forecasts that cyber threats in 2026 will predominantly derive from consistent and fragmented actions by various actors.

• - Fragmented Threats: Cyber risk will likely stem from a continuous array of overlapping activities by state actors, criminals, and proxies rather than isolated, headline-dominating attacks.
• - Persistent State Cyber Operations: Nation-states are expected to adopt strategies focused on sustained pressure, utilizing quiet pre-positioning techniques, credential theft, and identity exploitation for quick escalation with minimal warning.
• - Disruption over Destruction: Rather than launching overtly destructive cyberattacks, states are inclined to favor brief disruptions of critical infrastructures, such as cables and telecommunications systems, to project power while minimizing the risk of escalation.
• - Modular Cybercrime: Ransomware and cyber extortion will likely evolve into increasingly rapid, modular formations. These groups will prioritize nimbleness and operational persistence over large financial gains, making them harder to track and disrupt.
• - Influence Operations: Hacktivist groups may leverage AI to inundate online spaces with disinformation that blurs the line between credible news and fabricated narratives, maintaining confusion and undermining public trust even when credibility falters.

Dr. Ahlberg concluded his presentation by reinforcing the message that cyber operations have assimilated into the framework of modern conflict, becoming a lasting feature of geopolitical competition. What was once a passive preparatory phase for conflict has transformed into an active battlefield where adversaries prioritizing access and influence hold the upper hand.

Overall, Recorded Future's 2026 report serves as a stark reminder of how intertwined our digital and physical worlds have become, showcasing the pressing need for robust security measures in an increasingly uncertain future.