January Return Rates Surge, Reveling Changes in Consumer Behavior for 2026
Surge in Return Rates: Analyzing Consumer Behavior in January 2026
Recently published data from Narvar highlights a significant shift in consumer purchasing habits as we enter 2026. While overall holiday sales saw an approximate 6% increase compared to the previous year, the rate of returned items escalated sharply by around 11%. This trend indicates that consumers are becoming more cautious and selective in their buying decisions, a reflection of growing unease in the economic landscape.
Emergence of Provisional Purchasing
The discrepancy between the increase in sales and the even greater surge in returns points towards a recent phenomenon labeled as “provisional purchasing.” With consumer confidence reportedly hitting a 12-year low in January, households are prioritizing their budgets and carefully scrutinizing each purchase. Anisa Kumar, CEO of Narvar, emphasizes how returns are now viewed as a critical filter in customers' financial decisions:
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