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Strong New-Vehicle Sales in September

According to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive, new-vehicle sales in September are set to increase by 6% year-over-year, closing in on a robust 16.2 million vehicles sold on an annualized basis. This impressive uptick marks a continued recovery from last year's sales figures, which stood at 15.8 million, as well as an improvement from August's 16.1 million. The strong sales momentum comes as buyers hurry to make purchases before significant government-backed incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) come to an end.

Charlie Chesbrough, the senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted that the new-vehicle sales pace has remained surprisingly strong throughout the summer. He attributes this resilience to declining uncertainty surrounding tariff policies combined with low inflation rates, stable unemployment rates, and a thriving stock market, which has all fostered a strong consumer purchasing environment. As he stated, "The new-vehicle sales pace has been surprisingly strong this summer..." Furthermore, the rush towards electric vehicles has played a significant role in driving sales as consumers seek to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit before it expires at the end of September.

Electric Vehicle Market Grows

The third quarter is forecasted to witness a remarkable surge in electric vehicle sales, potentially reaching up to 409,000 units. This figure represents a 21.4% year-over-year increase and surpasses previous sales records significantly. In Q4 of 2024, the previous high was 365,824 units sold, marking a pivotal moment for the EV market. During this quarter, electric vehicles are expected to account for nearly 10% of all new-vehicle sales, setting a new record for market share.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty, the director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, remarked on how the federal tax credit for EVs has acted as a critical incentive for adoption. She noted that as the deadline for these incentives approaches, it will test whether the electric vehicle market can sustain itself without government support.

Despite the optimism surrounding the current sales figures, projections for the upcoming quarter indicate a notable slowdown. While new-vehicle sales are expected to rise year-over-year, there is an anticipated decline from the second quarter. Cox automotive foresees a challenging environment as supply chain constraints and tariff impacts begin to exert pressure on market conditions.

Q3 Sales Overview

For the third quarter of 2025, Cox Automotive forecasts a total of approximately 4.14 million new vehicles sold. Despite a reduction from the Q2 figures, this still represents a 6.2% increase year-over-year, primarily fueled by the four largest automakers—General Motors, Ford, Toyota, and Hyundai. These companies are collectively expected to show an impressive 11.2% growth compared to last year, while other manufacturers may only match a slight increase of 0.1%.

Moreover, Cox Automotive has raised its full-year forecast for total new-vehicle sales to range between 15.8 and 16.4 million vehicles, reflecting improved sales dynamics in the recent months.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, however, challenges remain on the horizon. Chesbrough provided a cautionary note about the expected decline in EV sales as incentives end and market conditions shift. As more tariffed products come into play, automotive prices could see upward pressure as manufacturers adjust to new supply costs.

Overall, while the current statistics indicate a robust market driven by thriving electrification, observers should remain alert to the evolving challenges that could impact future sales figures. As the automotive landscape continuously changes, Cox Automotive's analysis offers a critical understanding of where the market stands and where it is headed. This year will prove crucial in determining if the momentum can be maintained without the additional encouragement of incentives going forward.