Restaurants Remain Optimistic About Sales Growth Amid Consumer Caution in 2026

As economic uncertainties loom, it appears that both consumers and restaurants are navigating a complex terrain. Although shoppers are ordering less frequently from restaurants, major players in the food service sector remain calm and optimistic about the potential for growth in the coming year. According to a recent forecast by IFMA (The Food Away from Home Association), total expenditures on food away from home are expected to rise by an inflation-adjusted rate of 1.1% in 2026. This uptick is attributed to a moderate increase in consumer demand despite the hesitations brought about by economic fluctuations.

In a landscape where high costs have limited consumer spending, the restaurant industry has shown remarkable resilience. One of the primary factors impacting the decline in orders has been inflated menu costs. Fortunately, IFMA predicts a slowdown in menu inflation for 2026, estimating food prices to grow by 3%. This is a slight decrease compared to the projected 3.9% increase in 2025. The easing of prices could encourage consumers to consider dining out more frequently.

Despite the lingering concerns over tariffs and their impact on food sourcing, the forecasts maintain a positive outlook. Important metrics such as the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment indicate that while consumer feelings may be shaky, this does not entirely dampen their appetite for dining out.

"The sky is not falling," remarked Charlie McConnell, Vice President of Industry Insights at IFMA. He emphasized that the food service industry has weathered numerous challenges, including recessions and pandemics, and this time will prove no different. The forecast suggests that although foot traffic may not dramatically increase, operators can expect more revenue largely driven by price hikes rather than an influx of patrons.

Reports indicate that suppliers for food service will command a substantial $37.4 billion in purchases in 2026, contributing to an estimated $1.1 trillion in overall sales to consumers this year. With restaurants projected to generate the lion's share of this revenue, estimated at $783.9 billion, the landscape remains competitive. Notably, the fast-casual sector is anticipated to spearhead growth, with an increase of 2% in sales.

On the other hand, ‘ghost’ restaurants—businesses that operate without physical dining spaces and rely solely on delivery—remain a feasible option for entrepreneurs in the culinary world. The report forecasts that sales from these establishments will surpass $2 billion by 2026, indicating that the sector is still vibrant.

Members of IFMA have access to comprehensive projections and data via the IFMA Scope® portal, which provides interactive insights into market dynamics, aiding in strategic planning.

About IFMA

IFMA has been at the forefront of the food service sector since its establishment in 1952. As a leading trade association, it connects diverse stakeholders within the $1.5 trillion food-away-from-home industry, including manufacturers, distributors, and operators. Through sharing vital resources and insights, IFMA continues to elevate industry standards and practices.

In conclusion, while consumers exhibit caution amid economic fluctuations, the food service industry remains optimistic about growth. It seems the penchant for enjoying meals prepared elsewhere will continue to thrive, ensuring a robust dining out experience for many in 2026.