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Agility's Emerging Markets Index 2026: Trends and Forecasts

As we look ahead to 2026, leaders in the logistics sector are bracing themselves for a year characterized by significant volatility within trade, geopolitical relations, and the global economy. The recently released Agility Emerging Markets Index outlines these expectations, fueled by a comprehensive survey involving over 500 logistics professionals. An overwhelming 86% of respondents anticipate not only an increase in volatility but also view the current turbulent conditions as the 'new normal'.

In the wake of these uncertainties, logistics executives are increasingly relying on advanced technologies—particularly artificial intelligence (AI), tightening cost controls, and redesigning supply chains as crucial tools to navigate the shifting landscape. The widespread integration of AI is evident, with 98% of surveyed companies employing this technology to manage aspects of their supply chains or operational processes. This adoption comes as logistics firms strive to respond to ongoing shifts in global production and sourcing patterns, initially triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, and perpetuated by ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China. Recent adjustments have further been compounded by various tariff increases affecting global supply chains.

Tarek Sultan, Chairman of Agility, emphasized the urgency that business and government leaders are feeling in these unpredictable times. Leaders are entirely aware that comfort zones are a luxury that cannot be afforded; rather, they are actively seeking out sustainable paths of growth against the backdrop of extraordinary uncertainty. He noted that AI serves as both a contributor to the underlying volatility and a potential solution for managing it. Business leaders today confront new trade barriers in real-time and are also pushing forward with energy transitions while navigating complex partner dynamics.

The 2026 index marks the 17th edition of Agility’s annual snapshot of the industry mood, evaluating the competitiveness of 50 leading emerging market economies based on national and international logistics capabilities, business climate, and digital maturity. These factors are critical in determining the attractiveness of countries for logistics service providers, freight forwarders, airlines, shipping companies, traders, and investors alike.

Significantly, the 2026 index contains a deep analysis of the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Collectively, these six nations are positioning themselves as global transit and logistics hubs, heavily investing in AI, energy transitions, and talent development. The GCC's growth as a trading nexus is underscored by its rapid adoption and scaling of AI technologies, along with its ability to maintain fruitful ties with major economic players such as the USA and China. Despite the volatility, the ambitions of these Gulf states remain unshaken.

In the index rankings, stability prevails. China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Qatar, Mexico, Thailand, and Brazil occupy the top ten spots of the 2026 index. All six Gulf states rank among the top twelve countries with the most favorable business conditions, while China, Malaysia, India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia lead in digital readiness. In terms of international logistics opportunities, China, India, Mexico, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia hold the top positions. Domestically, China, India, Indonesia, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia excel.

Key Highlights from the 2026 Index

• - Supply Chains: The diversification and restructuring of global supply chains is a relentless trend, with 97% of executives indicating that their organizations have moved or plan to move parts of their production and sourcing.
• - Risks: Companies perceive tariffs and trade protectionism as the least anticipated risks. Key strategies to counter these trade disruptions include supplier diversification, freight cost consolidation, and strategic inventory management.
• - Sustainability: A noteworthy segment—48%—indicated their firms are pausing or slowing down their sustainability initiatives. The prevalent reasons cited include cost reduction, shifting business priorities, and challenges in demonstrating ROI for sustainability investments.

According to John Manners-Bell, CEO of Transport Intelligence, the current environment is marked by 'structural uncertainty' stemming from geopolitical fragmentation, trade policy volatility, and uneven economic dynamics. The index highlights that rather than retreating from this uncertainty, having resilient supply chain companies adapt by developing solutions. The Agility Emerging Markets Index has been invaluable in allowing investors to distinguish between countries that have fully harnessed opportunities versus those that are lagging.

For further insights, access the full report at Agility.

About Agility

Agility operates as a multi-business entity and long-term investor across global and regional sectors. With diverse holdings that include the world’s largest air services company, Menzies Aviation, and a leading fuel logistics entity, Tristar, Agility is also a premier developer and operator of logistics parks across the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. The company holds minority stakes in DSV, the world’s largest forwarder, and is involved in various sectors including digital logistics and e-commerce. Agility has a presence in over 80 countries with 68,000 employees. The company is publicly listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). For more information, visit Agility.