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Overview of the Employment Trends Index

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) maintained its level at 107.83 in June 2025, consistent with an upward revision from the previous month. This index serves as a leading indicator for payroll employment, suggesting that changes in its trajectory could signal shifts in hiring trends across the U.S. workforce.

Stability in the Labor Market

Mitchell Barnes, an economist at The Conference Board, noted that the ETI highlights the stability of the labor market despite ongoing uncertainties that continue to weigh on both consumer and business confidence. The metrics reveal a nuanced picture of employment prospects amid fluctuating economic conditions.

The survey data shows that the percentage of consumers perceiving that jobs are hard to find slightly decreased to 18.1% from 18.4% in May. While this represents a positive shift, it still hovers near the highest levels observed since early 2021. Furthermore, reports from small businesses indicate a rise in unfilled positions, with 36% expressing difficulties in filling jobs, contrasting with the 2024 average of 37.5%.

Job Openings and Employment Gains

In addition to the ETI's stability, job openings reflected a mild increase in May, reaching 7.8 million, marking the highest level since November. The general employment landscape was bolstered by a relatively solid employment report for June, which documented payroll gains of 147,000 and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Notably, despite some slowing in hiring, layoffs haven't surged meaningfully.

Moreover, initial claims for unemployment insurance saw a slight increase in June, while continuing claims rose steadily. The proportion of involuntary part-time workers decreased to 16.5%, showcasing a slight normalization in employment circumstances.

Trends in Temporary Employment

The temporary-help industry witnessed a decline of 2,600 jobs in June, marking a trend of five declines in six months this year. This downturn raises questions about the future growth potential in this sector. Economic indicators like industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales showed slight moderation; analysts believe ongoing trade volatility may be playing a role in these variations.

Analyzing the ETI Components

The flat reading of the ETI occurred despite slight negative contributions from five out of its eight components. These include job openings, industrial production, and initial unemployment claims. However, there were positive contributions from factors such as the percentage of firms struggling to fill positions, the ratio of involuntary part-time workers, and the percentage of consumers reporting job scarcity.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates key employment indicators, filtering out external noise for clearer trend analyses. The eight elements included in the ETI are:

• - The percentage of consumers indicating that jobs are difficult to find
• - Initial unemployment insurance claims
• - The ratio of firms unable to fill positions
• - Employment changes in the temporary-help sector
• - The ratio of involuntary part-time workers
• - Job openings statistics
• - Industrial production reports
• - Real manufacturing and trade metrics

Conclusion

The Employment Trends Index is a critical tool for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market. The latest figures suggest that while there are areas of concern—particularly in temporary employment and trade pressures—the overall trend indicates a cautious stability in hiring practices, suggesting potential resilience in the face of economic uncertainties ahead. As the Conference Board continues to publish this index monthly, it will serve as a valuable indicator for future labor market developments and job growth projections.

For more detailed updates, the Conference Board releases the Employment Trends Index monthly following the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report. Visit their website for comprehensive data and insights into these trends.