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Eurasia Group Unveils 2026 Top Risks Report

Eurasia Group, recognized as a leading global think tank and advisory firm, has released its eagerly anticipated Top Risks 2026 report. This report highlights critical geopolitical challenges that are expected to shape the year ahead, with the number one risk being a profound political revolution in the United States.

The Political Revolution in the US

According to Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, the United States is currently witnessing unprecedented political turmoil. He describes as a systemic transformation that threatens to reconfigure the existing political landscape. This revolution is driven by President Trump’s relentless effort to undermine established checks on power, effectively transforming governance into a more autocratic system.

Bremmer warns that as executive impunity increases and the rule of law begins to falter, the resulting instability threatens not only the business environment but also the global order in which the U.S. has long been a leader. He notes, “The revolution is more likely to fail than succeed, but there will be no returning to the former status quo.”

Additional Risks Identified

The report does not only focus on the U.S. political landscape; it identifies several other significant geopolitical risks for 2026, including:
1. Overpowered - The reliance on electric-powered technologies has led China to emerge as a dominant “electrostate,” challenging the U.S.'s historical energy dominance.
2. The Donroe Doctrine - President Trump’s redefined application of the Monroe Doctrine suggests a more active U.S. interventionism in the Western Hemisphere, particularly in Venezuela.
3. Europe Under Siege - A weakened political environment across major European nations raises the risk of destabilization and challenges to the international order.
4. Russia's Second Front - Tensions escalate as NATO increases pushback against Russia’s hybrid warfare strategies.
5. State Capitalism in the U.S. - With an administration deeply immersed in economic interventionism, the environment for businesses becomes increasingly unpredictable.
6. China’s Deflation Trap - Fears of a prolonged period of economic stagnation emerge as China fails to catalyze domestic demand.
7. AI Business Models - Concerns arise as artificial intelligence companies shift to exploitative business strategies that threaten societal stability.
8. Zombie USMCA - North American trade relations face stagnation as uncertainty looms over the viability of the USMCA agreement.
9. The Water Weapon - Escalating water disputes hint at a growing governance vacuum that could exacerbate geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

In summary, the Top Risks 2026 report serves as a clarion call for businesses, investors, and policymakers to prepare for a year marked by significant potential disruptions, especially tied to political dynamics in the United States. With geopolitical foundations shifting underfoot, stakeholders must adapt to navigate the uncertain waters of global affairs.

The Eurasia Group is committed to providing unbiased analysis and insights into the ever-changing global landscape, empowering clients to better understand and respond to risks and opportunities as they arise.

Stay informed by following Eurasia Group’s updates and engaging in discussions about these critical issues as they unfold throughout the year.