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RAN Market Stability Amid 6G Hopes

As the telecommunications industry transitions from 5G to 6G, the RAN (Radio Access Network) market, according to Dell'Oro Group's latest report, is slowly regaining its footing following significant revenue losses in previous years. The forecast indicates a modest growth rate of 1 percent CAGR over the next five years, as the market shifts dynamics with the expected rollout of 6G technology looming on the horizon.

Recent Trends and Challenges in the RAN Market

The last few years have not been kind to the RAN sector. Following a peak in 2023, revenues declined sharply in 2023 and 2024, totaling nearly a $10 billion loss globally. With these steep declines, industry stakeholders held their breath for signs of recovery, and according to Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell'Oro Group, there seems to be cautious optimism.

"The past couple of years have been extremely challenging with RAN shedding nearly $10 B in revenue globally," he states, emphasizing the slow growth rate and the muted demand that the market is expected to face in the short term. However, the shifting sentiment around 6G technology is seen as a positive indicator, suggesting that there could be significant revenue opportunities arising as the industry heads toward 2030.

Looking Towards 6G: What to Expect

Currently, operators are contending with the challenges of aligning investments with the varying demand for mobile data and the availability of new spectrum and technologies. The forecast from Dell'Oro Group indicates that while the long term growth outlook for the RAN market remains stagnant—showing no growth between 2000 and 2025—increased capital intensity ratios can be anticipated during different investment periods.

Analysts also predict that global RAN revenues will bear the brunt of declining LTE revenues, which will offset gains from 5G and early investments in 6G. This context sets a stage where the RAN segment is likely to command a 20 to 25 percent share of wireless capital expenditure over the next five years.

Navigating a Complex Landscape

As we advance toward a future dominated by 6G technologies, market stakeholders must remain cognizant of both optimistic and pessimistic potential outcomes. The market's growth trajectory hinges on several factors including mobile data traffic patterns, the timing of capacity investments, and the focus on network differentiation going deeper into 2026 and beyond.

Do note, the forecast further emphasizes the necessity for operators and stakeholders within the telecommunications landscape to strategically plan their investments towards upcoming networks and service upgrades. A balanced approach will be critical in navigating the uncertain seas during this transitional phase.

Conclusion

In summary, while the RAN market has been through tumultuous times following the surge of 5G, the gradual move to stabilize suggests that the future may hold promise—provided the market leverages opportunities presented by 6G technology. The upcoming years will be crucial as operators gear up for significant investments, and as such revenue patterns evolve accordingly. For deeper insights, Dell'Oro Group’s Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report elaborates on regional breakdowns and market expectations, paving the path for informed decision-making among stakeholders in the telecommunications ecosystem.