New Index Reveals Vulnerability of 188 Countries to Climate Crises

On June 26, 2025, the Columbia Climate School, with the backing of the Rockefeller Foundation, unveiled a trailblazing index that assesses the vulnerability of 188 countries to climate-related risks. This innovative tool, named the Climate Financial Vulnerability Index (CliF), combines nations' susceptibility to natural disasters such as cyclones, floods, and droughts with their financial capacity to implement preventive and recovery measures.

The index reveals critical insights regarding nations' risks under four distinct climate scenarios. Among the findings, it categorizes 65 nations as being in the "Red Zone," indicating they are at extreme risk of facing climate crises. Two-thirds of these nations are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, which underscores the disproportionate impact climate change has on lower-income countries primarily engaged in crisis response without substantial mitigation efforts.

Professor Jeff Schlegelmilch, an associate professor at the Columbia Climate School, emphasized the urgent need for a more nuanced understanding of climate vulnerability. Traditional metrics, like GDP per capita, fail to capture the distinctive and exacerbating risks these nations face. The CliF index presents a reflective view of these concerns while highlighting access to financing as a compounding factor affecting their disaster readiness.

The consequences of climate change could be staggering, with projections suggesting over 14.5 million deaths and a global economic loss amounting to $12.5 trillion by 2050 due to extreme weather conditions. The annual financing gap needed for adaptation could reach as high as $387 billion, according to various estimates, including those from the United Nations Environment Program. Without substantial investments, the World Bank projects that climate change might push 132 million people into extreme poverty by 2030.

Countries within the "Red Zone" experience heightened risks while simultaneously grappling with high debt, which serves as a formidable barrier to accessing financial markets and resources essential for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery at the Rockefeller Foundation, pointed out that as governments gear up for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, the gap between developmental goals and necessary financial resources has never been wider.

Key Findings

The CliF Index allows users to filter results based on four scenarios predicting risks for 2050 and 2080, including both optimistic and pessimistic climate outlooks. From the 65 Red Zone countries, 47 remain vulnerable across all scenarios. More than 2 billion people reside in Red Zone nations, where disaster risks are high, and financial access is increasingly constrained.

More than 66% of the Red Zone countries are classified as low and middle-income by OECD standards. Many of these nations harbor rapidly increasing populations that further strain their resources. In Sub-Saharan Africa alone, 43 of the 65 Red Zone countries represent approximately 1.2 billion people. Analysts expect the continent’s population to more than double by 2070, highlighting the urgency of targeted support and intervention.

The six countries identified within the Asia-Pacific region also face significant threats, including Bangladesh, Kiribati, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, all grappling with severe climate-related disasters. Each of these nations has a combined population exceeding 520 million, stressing the urgency for adaptation investments.

Latin America and the Caribbean, consisting of eight nations within the Red Zone and over 100 million residents, require investments ranging from $470 million to $1.3 trillion to meet Paris Agreement benchmarks, as noted by the Inter-American Development Bank. The eight countries in question include Belize, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela.

European nations are not immune either, with Ukraine and Cyprus falling into the Red Zone. Together, these nations account for 39 million people and illustrate that climate vulnerability is a global challenge.

Conclusion

Developed through a collaborative effort by the disaster preparedness team at Columbia Climate School, the CliF Index serves as a vital tool for influencing how financial resources are directed to crisis-prone countries. By prioritizing urgent interventions in the most vulnerable regions, it seeks to ultimately empower communities facing multi-faceted disaster risks. This innovative approach stands to elevate the conversation surrounding climate financing and illuminate pathways for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The CliF Index aims not only to map vulnerability but also to facilitate discussions for meaningful financial investment for the most affected communities worldwide. As climate crises escalate, the call to action is clear: immediate and strategic funding is essential to navigate future challenges effectively.