#Black Friday #Japan #Tokyo #ONE COMPATH #Shufoo!AI

Analyzing Supermarket Promotion Strategies: Insights from Shufoo!AI

In this retrospective look into 2025, we analyze the promotional strategies adopted by supermarkets using the Shufoo!AI tool developed by ONE COMPATH. This state-of-the-art AI tool has been implemented as a beta version in various supermarkets and brands since 2023 and is set for a broader release in January 2026. By utilizing data from May 2023 to November 2025, we examine the evolving themes of promotional flyers in supermarkets.

The Rise of Black Friday Promotions

One of the most notable discoveries from our analysis is the significant rise in promotions centered around Black Friday. As awareness of this sale event continues to grow, the number of companies featuring Black Friday in their promotional strategies reached an all-time high in 2025. In contrast, fewer companies chose to focus on the Halloween theme, despite its historical significance during the same period. Furthermore, promotions for Christmas were at their lowest for the past three years, indicating a trend where themes are reshaped by the competition for earlier promotional slots.

This shift suggests that companies are pushing their promotional themes earlier than before, leading to a crowded market. For instance, while traditionally, many looked to Black Friday promotions starting in November, 2025 saw companies initiating promotions as early as October. This early start aligns with increasing consumer demand for essential goods, such as cabbage, bananas, and pork—all popular flyers in recent times.

Special attention should be given to the sales of items that saw remarkable spikes in flyer appearances. For example, the Dole Sweetie Bananas saw their flyer counts double between 2023 and 2025, while Kikkoman’s fresh soy sauce leaped to nearly nine times its past appearances, showcasing how early promotional themes produced longer purchasing periods for consumers.

The Early Shift in Event-based Promotions

While Black Friday showcased thrilling successes, other events like Halloween, Beaujolais Nouveau on the third Thursday of November, and Christmas faced adverse impacts. In particular, the number of promotions for Beaujolais Nouveau saw a drop from 47 companies in 2023 to 35 in 2025 as the promotional focus moved to Black Friday. Such shifts pose challenges for traditional seasonal events relying on established timelines.

Climate Change and Its Impact on Seasonal Promotions

An intriguing aspect of our analysis also indicates that climate change is affecting promotional themes. With rising average temperatures, especially during summer, the timelines for promotional events are evolving. The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts significant warming trends in the coming years, particularly highlighting warmer summers. In 2025, the average summer temperatures had a noticeable impact on when companies chose to promote fall themes.

In previous years, autumn promotional campaigns would begin around August. However, the extreme heat experienced across Japan in September 2025 led to a drastic drop in campaigns for fall themes, reducing participating companies from 61 in 2023 to just 41. As such trends continue, supermarkets will need to adapt their promotional strategies to align with changing seasonal rhythms.

Conclusions from the Data Analysis

This analysis reveals the intensifying competition for earlier promotional slots as brands seek to capture consumer attention in an increasingly crowded market. With Black Friday growing in popularity, we may see a retreat in Christmas promotions during October, but an uptick in market activity in December. 

Differentiation strategies have become paramount as companies navigate trends that markedly separate successful promotional themes from those affected by market oversaturation. Equally, understanding temperature escalations and their subsequent impact on promotional planning will be crucial moving forward, allowing supermarkets to maximize their marketing efforts effectively.

Voices from Businesses using Shufoo!AI

A number of representatives from supermarkets and manufacturers have voiced their appreciation for the Shufoo!AI platform. They note a shift from reliance on intuition-based product selections to data-driven decision-making. The tool provides critical insights regarding thematic alignment and competitive pricing, creating a more effective promotional strategy.

As we look towards the future, Shufoo!AI aims to expand its offerings beyond supermarkets and food categories, laying the groundwork for enhanced efficiency and maximized promotional impacts in the retail sector.

For more information, visit Shufoo!.