Forecast Highlights Underwhelming Growth in RAN Equipment Market Over Next Five Years
According to a recent forecast from the Dell'Oro Group, a key player in market research for telecommunications, security, and data center industries, the Radio Access Network (RAN) equipment market is poised for a lackluster performance over the coming five years. The anticipated growth rate is an unexciting 0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) due to various hindrances that have plagued the market, primarily linked to inequalities in 5G coverage, sluggish data traffic growth, and ongoing monetization issues.
After experiencing a marked acceleration in 5G investments between 2017 and 2021, investments in RAN equipment decreased sharply in 2023 and 2024. Although there may be slight improvements in the short term, the long-term forecast does not provide optimism for stakeholders. Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell'Oro Group, emphasizes the significance of regional imbalances, which will shape short-term market dynamics, while asserting that the overall trajectory remains flat. He cautions that new revenue streams from private wireless and fixed wireless access (FWA), when combined with mobile broadband (MBB) capacity growth, still fall short of compensating for the decline in capital expenditures regarding MBB coverage.
Among the essential findings outlined in the Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2025 Forecast Report are several critical projections. For instance, global RAN revenues are predicted to remain stagnant as the imminent declines in LTE revenues counterbalance the persistence of 5G investments. Although the medium-term landscape presents balanced risks, the long-term outlook exhibits a propensity for downside risks primarily attributed to uncertain data growth trends within the current MBB usage paradigm.
Investors are urged to pay close attention to the shift of investment focus from mere coverage to capacity, as one of the significant challenges in forecast accuracy rests on the potential slowdown of mobile data traffic growth. Current levels of network capacity utilization raise concerns about the timing and necessity of capacity upgrades, especially as more advanced markets begin to exhibit signs of maturity.
The dynamics of use cases have not evolved significantly; with the enterprise RAN set to experience impressive growth—estimated to exceed 20% CAGR—public RAN investments are expected to dwindle further. However, due to its current low baseline, it may take time before private RAN makes a substantial impact on the overall RAN market.
While the role of 5G-Advanced technology remains crucial as the industry transitions, it will not initiate a considerable capital expenditure cycle. Operators will likely redistribute their spending from 5G to 5G-Advanced without expanding their existing budgets.
Looking ahead, growth is expected among specific RAN segments over the next five years. Notable areas of potential growth include 5G New Radio (NR), fixed wireless access (FWA), millimeter-wave (mmWave), Open RAN, virtual RAN (vRAN), private wireless networks, and small cell deployments. Each of these segments is poised to adapt to the changing market landscape as opportunities arise.
For a comprehensive understanding of the RAN market by regions such as North America, Europe, Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, China, and the Caribbean Latin America, the Dell'Oro Group's Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report provides an in-depth analysis including revenue and unit shipments for different RAN technologies. For those interested in availing of this valuable report, inquiries can be made via email at [email protected].
Dell'Oro Group, a distinguished market research firm specialized in competitive analysis within telecommunications, data centers, and enterprise networks, offers valuable insights that help businesses make informed, data-driven decisions for their strategic planning. For more information about their offerings, visit their website or reach out via +1.650.622.9400.
After experiencing a marked acceleration in 5G investments between 2017 and 2021, investments in RAN equipment decreased sharply in 2023 and 2024. Although there may be slight improvements in the short term, the long-term forecast does not provide optimism for stakeholders. Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell'Oro Group, emphasizes the significance of regional imbalances, which will shape short-term market dynamics, while asserting that the overall trajectory remains flat. He cautions that new revenue streams from private wireless and fixed wireless access (FWA), when combined with mobile broadband (MBB) capacity growth, still fall short of compensating for the decline in capital expenditures regarding MBB coverage.
Among the essential findings outlined in the Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2025 Forecast Report are several critical projections. For instance, global RAN revenues are predicted to remain stagnant as the imminent declines in LTE revenues counterbalance the persistence of 5G investments. Although the medium-term landscape presents balanced risks, the long-term outlook exhibits a propensity for downside risks primarily attributed to uncertain data growth trends within the current MBB usage paradigm.
Investors are urged to pay close attention to the shift of investment focus from mere coverage to capacity, as one of the significant challenges in forecast accuracy rests on the potential slowdown of mobile data traffic growth. Current levels of network capacity utilization raise concerns about the timing and necessity of capacity upgrades, especially as more advanced markets begin to exhibit signs of maturity.
The dynamics of use cases have not evolved significantly; with the enterprise RAN set to experience impressive growth—estimated to exceed 20% CAGR—public RAN investments are expected to dwindle further. However, due to its current low baseline, it may take time before private RAN makes a substantial impact on the overall RAN market.
While the role of 5G-Advanced technology remains crucial as the industry transitions, it will not initiate a considerable capital expenditure cycle. Operators will likely redistribute their spending from 5G to 5G-Advanced without expanding their existing budgets.
Looking ahead, growth is expected among specific RAN segments over the next five years. Notable areas of potential growth include 5G New Radio (NR), fixed wireless access (FWA), millimeter-wave (mmWave), Open RAN, virtual RAN (vRAN), private wireless networks, and small cell deployments. Each of these segments is poised to adapt to the changing market landscape as opportunities arise.
For a comprehensive understanding of the RAN market by regions such as North America, Europe, Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, China, and the Caribbean Latin America, the Dell'Oro Group's Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report provides an in-depth analysis including revenue and unit shipments for different RAN technologies. For those interested in availing of this valuable report, inquiries can be made via email at [email protected].
Dell'Oro Group, a distinguished market research firm specialized in competitive analysis within telecommunications, data centers, and enterprise networks, offers valuable insights that help businesses make informed, data-driven decisions for their strategic planning. For more information about their offerings, visit their website or reach out via +1.650.622.9400.
Topics Telecommunications）
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