#United States #Irvine #commercial real estate #LightBox #CRE Index

CRE Activity Index Hits 2025 Peak

The recent release of the September CRE Activity Index by LightBox reveals a surge to 116.8 points, marking the highest figure of 2025. This index reflects a significant recovery following a dip in August, driven by a notable increase in property listings and ongoing strength in environmental due diligence and appraisal activities.

The CRE Activity Index is calculated based on over 30,000 real-time market signals, which includes listings, appraisals, and environmental assessments. The latest surge indicates a positive response from the commercial real estate market to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points in mid-September, revitalizing investor and lender sentiment.

Key Highlights from September’s CRE Activity Index:

• - Property Listings Surge: There was a remarkable 25% increase in commercial property listings month-over-month, reversing two months of declines and returning to pre-August levels as sellers came back to the market.
• - Steady Environmental Due Diligence: The volume of Phase I Environmental Site Assessments (ESA) remained stable and just below June’s peak, indicating a consistent level of pre-transaction and lending activity.
• - Increased Appraisals: Lender-driven commercial appraisals saw a 1% increase, reflecting the cautious optimism of lenders responding to improved market conditions.

Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox, expressed encouragement at the September rebound. He noted, "Sellers are returning to the market, and lenders are beginning to step up their activity in response to the recent easing of rates. The combination of better liquidity and rising confidence suggests that the lull observed in August was simply a temporary setback rather than a trend shift."

Despite this positive momentum, the index and report also highlight ongoing challenges. Labor market data reveals softening conditions, inflation remains persistent, and a potential federal shutdown could introduce new uncertainties.

Nevertheless, the resilience of the CRE market amid these obstacles underlines the enduring demand across various segments. "The September data reveals genuine forward movement after months of cautious outlook, suggesting a potential for recovery that could extend into 2026 if favorable conditions continue," Clancy added.

Market Transaction Highlights

The renewed activity in September led to an impressive closed volume of approximately $26 billion in commercial transactions, making it the busiest month for the year. Noteworthy trends included a 17% increase in deals exceeding $100 million and a 26% rise in transactions within the $50-$100 million range. These figures underscore a healthy appetite among investors for well-positioned assets spanning multifamily, industrial, and select office categories.

Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox, observed the market’s transition into Q4 with a sense of optimism. "Despite mixed headlines, it’s clear that investors are eager to close deals, lenders are back to work filling pipelines, and listings are on the rise. This reflects a cautious yet widening recovery path as we progress into the last quarter of the year."

About LightBox

LightBox stands at the forefront of providing advanced solutions for commercial real estate insights. Their commitment to innovation and excellence serves a diverse clientele, equipping industry professionals with the essential tools for navigating complex decisions, minimizing risks, and boosting productivity in real estate operations. With over 30,000 clients, including brokers, developers, investors, and technologists, LightBox remains a pivotal resource in the evolving landscape of real estate. To learn more about their offerings, visit LightBoxRE.com.