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Analysis of the Latest Real Estate Sentiments in Japan's Market

In October to December 2025, At Home Co., Ltd. conducted its 48th quarterly survey, assessing the sentiment in residential real estate markets across Japan. The survey engaged At Home affiliates from various regions, focusing on 14 areas in 13 prefectures. The results were published with a detailed analysis from At Home Lab, Inc.

Overview of Key Findings

The survey indicates a mixed performance across the residential real estate sectors. Notably, in the rental market, the sentiment index (DI) was negative for nine out of the fourteen surveyed areas compared to the same period last year. However, the Tokyo 23 wards managed to maintain a DI rating above 50, reflecting a robust rental demand, likely influenced by rising rent prices becoming the norm in the area.

In the sales market, results showed stability, with ten regions reporting a minimal change (within ±2 points) compared to last year's figures. Notably, Saitama and Kyoto experienced significant positive shifts, indicating localized growth in the selling market.

Future Rental Price Trends

Looking ahead to 2026, projections suggest an upward trend in rental prices for both single residents and families, a sentiment that has increased for two consecutive years, now making up over half of the responses.

Commentary by Junko Iwazume, Executive Officer at At Home Lab

Junko Iwazume, who oversees the data marketing department at At Home Lab, elaborated on the findings, stating, "The current market scenario exhibits a plateau, yet the questions arise about consumer capacity to keep up with rising rental prices. The consumer experience in the rental and sales sectors tends to remain nearly flat.

Particularly in Tokyo, despite high rental costs, sustained demand continues, driven by substantial rent subsidies offered by employers and a stable income segment supporting the market.

Investment interest appears to balance against cautious buyer attitudes among those looking to make personal purchases. As we anticipate 2026, the prevailing question remains whether consumers can adapt to the potential price increases.

Detailed Survey Methodology

The survey data was collected from December 11 to December 24, 2025, targeting real estate agencies that hold official licenses and have been in operation for over five years. A total of 1,943 valid responses were collected, predominantly from business owners across the surveyed areas, which included Hokkaido, Miyagi, the Greater Tokyo area, Shizuoka, Aichi, the Kansai region, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka.

For those interested in a deeper dive into the findings, the full report is available for download here.