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The New Spectrum Policy: Implications for 5G and 6G Infrastructure Investments

New Spectrum Policy: Implications for 5G and 6G Infrastructure Investments

In a recent update, Mobile Experts Inc. released a forecast series reflecting changes in the 5G and 6G landscape. These adjustments came after the examination of the recent legislation termed the "Big Beautiful Bill," alongside consultation with major American telecommunications companies.

Key Legislative Changes

One of the most significant outcomes of this legislation is the reinstatement of the FCC's spectrum auction authority. This move marks a fundamental shift, allowing new spectrum to be licensed for commercial use, a development that was largely anticipated and did not take stakeholders by surprise. However, the legislation has also instituted exclusions for specific frequency bands—namely 3.1 to 3.45 GHz and 7.4 to 8.4 GHz—areas that many had hoped would help broaden options for high-capacity mobile traffic.

Instead, the newly designated bands for future study include frequencies from 2.7-2.9 GHz, 4.4-4.9 GHz, and 7.25-7.4 GHz, along with directives for the FCC to auction 100 MHz within the range of 3.98 to 4.2 GHz. This change introduces a mixed bag of outcomes for the industry.

The Effects on 6G

Many telecom operators were optimistic about acquiring a wide block of spectrum (400-500 MHz) situated between 7.1 GHz and 8.4 GHz. However, due to the legislation’s constraints, this prospect seems obsolete within the United States. Yet, the attention now shifts to the narrower bands that the legislation opens up, potentially stimulating some localized growth. Operators may be compelled to deploy more radio units in affected areas, yet the overall excitement for a nationwide investment landscape appears to have diminished.

Joe Madden, Principal Analyst at Mobile Experts, summarized the situation succinctly: "The impact on our forecast is pretty complex here. We’ve increased the number of products to be sold in the US market and have solidified the timing for the next wave of investments, but it's worth noting that the number of sites deployed could be lower than previously anticipated."

Market Forecasting Insights

Mobile Experts specializes in precise market analysis concerning mobile infrastructure, effectively forecasting shipments of 4G, 5G, and 6G technologies by triangulating inputs from various sources, including operators, network vendors, and component manufacturers. Their analytical process has proven reliable—so much so that when the corresponding number of filters aligns with power amplifiers, the team can assure stakeholders of the data's integrity.

The company's research outputs include:

- Tracking of mobile infrastructure revenue and market share.
- A breakdown of base station shipments across regions, power levels, MIMO configurations, and frequency bands.
- Detailed radio transceiver analysis, tracking specifics like power amplifier, filter, data converter, and baseband semiconductor revenue and market share.
- Forecasts concerning Virtual RAN and Open RAN adoption.
- Insights on small cell shipments, revenue generation, and market share analytics.
- Cost analyses aimed at revealing the ROI for operators investing in 6G technologies.

Conclusion

The recent changes in the spectrum regulations usher a new phase for mobile technology in the United States, altering the investment landscape for 5G and 6G systems. While opportunities remain in newly designated bands, the challenges introduced by the legislative exclusions pose significant implications for operators and investors alike.

For over two decades, Mobile Experts Inc. has been delivering insightful analysis in the wireless industry, catering to more than 150 companies that depend on its forecasts to shape their strategic decisions. Recent focuses have included Private LTE, 5G, Satellite Broadband, Fixed Wireless Access, and the influence of AI on mobile networks.