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Sinopec's Groundbreaking Global Energy Outlook 2060

On April 21, 2025, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, commonly known as Sinopec, marked a historic moment by releasing its inaugural Global Energy Outlook 2060 report in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This publication represents the first time a Chinese entity has shared long-term global energy forecasts outside of its home turf.

Significant Collaborations

The report launch was part of a larger event focused on enhancing international collaborations in energy and chemical sectors. Sinopec took this opportunity to release not only the Global Energy Outlook 2060 but also two additional reports: the China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition) and the 2025 China Energy and Chemical Industry Outlook. Each document is geared toward providing detailed insights into both global and national energy trajectories, emphasizing Sinopec's commitment to energy transformation.

Key Projections

The Global Energy Outlook 2060 offers a comprehensive prediction that primary global energy consumption will peak at 26.71 billion tons of coal equivalent by 2045, with renewable energies accounting for 51.8% by 2060. The report projects a subsequent decline to 25.25 billion tons by 2060, with oil and gas still representing a substantial 35.7%. The forecast indicates that petroleum usage will rise to 4.66 billion tons in 2030, transitioning from transportation to industrial feedstocks, yet maintaining a 40% share of the transportation energy sector by 2060. In a notable shift, the report anticipates a drastic increase in non-fossil energy use, especially hydrogen, which is expected to soar from 2% in 2023 to nearly 50% by 2060, surpassing 340 million tons annually. Furthermore, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) capabilities are projected to elevate to 110 million tons by 2030 and reach up to 4.7 billion tons by 2060.

National Insights from the China Energy Outlook

The China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition) forecasts that China's primary energy consumption is poised to plateau after 2030, peaking between 6.8 and 7.1 billion tons. It also notes that domestic oil demand will peak before 2027, while non-fossil energy sources are expected to surpass fossil fuels in electricity generation by 2035. CO₂ emissions from energy sources are set to peak between 10.8 and 11.2 billion tons before 2030, securing an early carbon peak.

Industry Context and Future Directions

The 2025 China Energy and Chemical Industry Outlook projects a total refining capacity in China to plateau between 960 and 970 million tons per year by 2025. The chemical industry is facing challenges, including overcapacity in the olefins and aromatic hydrocarbon sectors, alongside high capacity levels in bulk chemicals. This report aims to inform stakeholders about necessary adjustments within the industry landscape as it transitions to meet evolving energy demands.

Conclusion

Sinopec's commitment to publishing these comprehensive energy reports underscores its role in fostering global discussions on energy transition and sustainability. Through research and collaboration, the corporation aims to contribute significantly to a more cooperative energy landscape that embraces innovation and responsibility.