#London #United Kingdom #precious metals #WPIC #Platinum Market

Overview of the Platinum Market Forecast for 2025 and Beyond

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has released its latest report, revealing a significant continuation in the trend of platinum market deficits. The year 2025 is expected to close with a notable deficit of 692 koz, marking the third consecutive year of tightness in the market. According to the WPIC’s Platinum Quarterly report for Q3 2025, supply constraints along with robust demand are determining factors in this ongoing shortage.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

In 2025, total platinum supply is projected to drop by 2% year-on-year, totalling around 7,129 koz. This decrease is attributed to factors affecting mining output, resulting in the lowest levels of supply observed in five years. Conversely, the automotive industry is set to witness a 10% rise in demand compared to the previous five-year average. Additionally, the jewellery sector is growing at an impressive 7%, driven largely by demand spikes noted in the first half of the year, particularly from China, contributing to a target of 2,157 koz.

Furthermore, investment in platinum bars and coins is forecasted to surge by 47% year-on-year, highlighting the increasing interest among investors and collectors, especially in the lucrative Chinese market.

Prospective Changes in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, the WPIC anticipates a shift towards a more balanced platinum market, projecting a slight surplus of 20 koz. This transition relies heavily on the resolution of ongoing trade tensions and tariff concerns that have previously impacted investment flows in precious metals. The report suggests that easing these tariff fears could facilitate an outflow of 150 koz from stocks held in exchange, in addition to encouraging profit-taking from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), potentially yielding an additional 170 koz.

Trevor Raymond, CEO of WPIC, emphasized that a return to balance in the platinum market hinges on geopolitical stability. The continued global uncertainties could sustain pressure on supply, possibly leading to another year of deficits should tensions persist.

Market Response to Prices and Investments

Current market conditions display a combination of high lease rates and a situation known as deep backwardation, particularly in the London over-the-counter forward markets. These indicators reinforce the ongoing tightness in the platinum market, despite a significant price increase over the course of 2025. Increased prices have motivated more metal to enter the market, but they also suggest that further price escalations may be necessary to adequately meet demographic demand.

Interestingly, ETF liquidations have not played a significant role in alleviating market pressure; rather, ETF holdings were net positive by the end of October 2025, even with rising prices. Such dynamics indicate that rather than reducing their exposure, ETF investors may be more inclined to increase their holdings as market conditions evolve into 2026.

Conclusion

In summary, the platinum market is navigating through significant challenges heading into 2025 with a notable projected deficit of 692 koz. With critical factors such as automotive demand, jewellery growth, and investment interest continuing to surge, the forecast remains optimistic for an eventual rebalancing in 2026—assuming external pressures, such as tariffs and global trade tensions, begin to ease. Stakeholders within the platinum landscape should prepare for a potentially tumultuous but ultimately fruitful period of growth as the market adjusts to these ongoing changes.

Disclaimer: Neither the WPIC nor its affiliates are authorized to provide investment advice. All financial considerations should be made with the guidance of professional advisors.